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Simons Research
This is a compendium of Howard L. Simons' Minyanville articles from February 2010 through the end of the site's active life in July 2014. The dates refer to when the article was written.
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U.S. Sovereign Credit Risk And Inflation
,
" February 7, 2010, on CDS being an indicator of catastrophic inflation
"
Why A Company's Credit Risk Can Be Lower Than A Country's
,
" February 7, 2010, on quirks in sovereign CDS
"
Commodities Are Poor Inflation And Currency Hedges,
" February 7, 2010, on negative long-term constant-dollar price trends in commodities
"
Chinese Monetary Policy And Global Equity Risk,
" February 13, 2010, on the importance of China's capital exports to other markets
"
Chinese Monetary Policy And U.S. Fixed-Income,
" February 13, 2010, on Chinese purchases of U.S. Treasury securities
"
Chinese Monetary Policy And Base Metals,
" February 13, 2010, on base metals' sensitivity to Chinese demand
"
Failure Is An Option In Currency Trading,
" February 19, 2010, on the poor performance of currency traders
"
Japan, U.S. Treasuries And Emerging Markets,
" February 19, 2010, on a switched role for the yen carry trade
"
Quality Is More Important Than Size,
" February 20, 2010, on different stock-bond correlations across the quality dimension
"
From Russia With Crude,
" February 24, 2010, on Russia's crude oil dependence
"
Switzerland's Alpine Cash Inflows,
" February 24, 2010, on Swiss markets' commodity linkage
"
Inflation: Some Day, But Not Tomorrow,
" February 25, 2010, on continued pressure on the money supply
"
Food And Fuel Still A Bad Combination,
" March 4, 2010, on sugar, corn, ethanol and gasoline
"
Bonds During The Last High-Inflation Era,
" March 4, 2010, on bond investors' delayed reactions during the 1970s
"
Bond Risk For The Long Run,
" March 4, 2010, on risk and return in Treasury bonds by maturity segment
"
Growth And Value, Ten Years After,
" March 10, 2010, on the relative performance of the two styles
"
Commodity-Linked Equities Not Commodities,
" March 11, 2010, on a shift in behavior by the resource stocks
"
Convertible Bonds In The Bull Market,
" March 11, 2010, on the vulnerability of high-yield convertibles
"
Honey, I Shrunk The Equity,
" March 16, 2010, on the impact of equity issuance and shrinkage
"
No Worries In Swap Land,
" March 17, 2010, on the implications of declining swap spreads
"
Free Inflation Insurance. Inquire Within,
" March 17, 2010, on the underperformance of TIPS
"
Gold Needs More Irresponsibility,
" March 24, 2010, on the stall in gold prices
"
There Is No Such Thing As Commodities,
" March 24, 2010, on the low correlation between various commodity sub-indices
"
India Raises Rates. No Film At 11,
" March 25, 2010, on the implications of India's rate-hike
"
Commodities And Currencies Are Not What You Think,
" April 1, 2010, on the linkages between individual commodities and currencies
"
Platinum Could Flatten 'Em,
" April 1, 2010, on a bullish outlook for platinum group metals
"
Free Money And The Financial Sector,
" April 2, 2010, on diminishing returns on low short-term interest rates
"
Crude Oil - S&P 500 Relationship Moving Toward Danger Zone,
" April 8, 2010, on a prospective return to negative correlation at high prices
"
If You've Got The Money, Honey, Don't Buy The Crude,
" April 8, 2010, on the non-linkage between monetary factors and crude oil prices
"
The Yuan: Forwards March!,
" April 8, 2010, on inferring a yuan revaluation
"
Steeper My Curve To Thee,
" April 15, 2010, on the instability of the term yield curve
"
Short Rates And The New Abnormal,
" April 15, 2010, on the structure of the money-market yield curve
"
No Dread In TED Spread,
" April 15, 2010, on the depressed TED spread
"
Food Stocks Shrug Off John Barleycorn's Demise,
" April 22, 2010, on weak impact of lower corn and soybean prices on the group
"
Bond Market Accepts Higher Inflation Expectations,
" April 23, 2010, on the implications of declining realized TIPS volatility
"
Short-Dated Inflation Expectations To Rise First,
" April 23, 2010, on real and inflation-expectations yield curve
"
Emerging Markets' Carry Harvest,
" April 29, 2010, on links between currency carry and global equity indices
"
Easy Livin' And Equity Underperformance,
" April 29, 2010, on relative equity performance following quantitative easing
"
Bond Performance And Quantitative Easing,
" April 29, 2010, on relative sovereign debt performance following quantitative easing
"
The Euro's Industry Group Impact,
" May 6, 2010, on the industry group impact of the euro
"
Euro And Yen: You Gotta Know When,
" May 6, 2010, on the euro/yen cross-rate's relationship to risk
"
TIPS Distortions During A Panic,
" May 6, 2010, on drops in TIPS breakevens during conventional Treasury bond rallies
"
Skews You Can Use,
" May 13, 2010, on the harvesting of the put option skew in the S&P 500 index
"
Too Much, Too Late In The Eurozone,
" May 13, 2010, on the European Central Bank's quantitative easing
"
Short-Term Interest Rates No Longer Unexpectedly Low,
" May 13, 2010, on the end of unexpectedly low short-term interest rates
"
Gold And Crude Oft Misconstrued,
" May 20, 2010, on the relationship between the two markets
"
Useful Japanese Bond Market Phrases,
" May 20, 2010, on parallels between the U.S. and Japanese bond markets
"
The Cost Of Being Europe,
" May 21, 2010, on the interest rate adjustments required to preserve the euro
"
Comparing The Nikkei And The NASDAQ,
" May 27, 2010, on an analog between the two markets
"
A Commercial For Commercial Paper,
" May 27, 2010, on the likelihood of a long-term floor in issuance
"
Japanese Bonds Under Zero Interest Rate Policy,
" May 28, 2010, on the performance of JGBs since ZIRP was adopted in 1999
"
Hong Kong Turns Carry Trades Around,
" June 3, 2010, on Hong Kong's role as a source of carry trade funding
"
Canada, Australia And Diversification,
" June 3, 2010, on the consequences of interest rate renormalization
"
ETFs Change Corporate Bond Behavior,
" June 4, 2010, on the impact of indexation on corporate bonds
"
Food: Fat People, Skinny Returns,
" June 10, 2010, on the poor returns of agricultural commodity investments
"
Flying High In A Lead Balloon,
" June 10, 2010, on the rising speculative content of base metals prices
"
BP Option Skews And Its Risk Of Ruin,
" June 11, 2010, on the changes in BP's volatility skew
"
Currency Trade Weights Over Time,
" June 17, 2010, on the low impact on trade flows of currency changes
"
We Are All Currency Traders Now,
" June 17, 2010, on the dependence of foreign investment returns on currency changes
"
About That Flight To Quality,
" June 17, 2010, on the lack of a demonstrable flight to and from Treasuries during large stock moves
"
Misleading Divergence Between Leading Indicators,
" June 24, 2010, on differences between the Conference Board and ECRI indicators
"
Default: Not Dead, Only Resting,
" June 24, 2010, on the aftermath of global defaults and devaluations
"
Commodity-Linked Currencies: Chile,
" June 24, 2010, on the copper, the peso and the relative performance of Chilean markets
"
We Are All Triskaidekaphobes Now,
" July 1, 2010, on the inability of stocks to outperform T-bills for the past thirteen years
"
Special Settlements And Market Integrity,
" July 1, 2010, on the impact of government-induced jumps in the market on settlement days
"
Integrated Oils Not Crude Oil Price Predictors,
" July 2, 2010, on the non-predictive capacity of integrated oil stocks on crude oil prices
"
ISM Manufacturing Index Not Cause For Panic,
" July 4, 2010, on the low macro predictive capacity of the index
"
Savings As The Stimulus Ends,
" July 4, 2010, on the move away from a backward-bending supply curve for savings
"
Utility Performance, Relative And Absolute,
" July 6, 2010, on the indifferent outlook for utilities
"
Link Between Chinese Stocks And U.S. Treasuries Is Temporary,
" July 13, 2010, on the recent observed correlation between the two markets
"
Do Not Spread American And Chinese Stocks,
" July 13, 2010, on the statistical invalidity of the spread trade
"
Financial Stocks And The Yield Curve,
" July 13, 2010, on inability of monetary stimulus to produce financial sector outperformance
"
Wheat Not A Worry Yet,
" July 22, 2010, on the inflation impact of higher wheat prices
"
Trends In Daily Ranges,
" July 22, 2010, on the which stocks have had expanding or contracting daily ranges
"
When Too Low Is Not Low Enough,
" July 22, 2010, on the need for lower short-term interest rates
"
Market Reactions To Employment Surprises,
" July 27, 2010, on interest rate futures' reactions to employment numbers
"
Crude Oil Inventories Should Start Declining
,
" July 28, 2010, on a prospective drawdown in global crude oil inventories
"
Cheap Yen Not Igniting Carry Trades,
" July 28, 2010, on the unwillingness of carry traders to borrow the yen
"
Dividends And Return,
" August 3, 2010, on the non-relationship between dividend return and total return
"
European Corporate Bonds To Support Stocks,
" August 3, 2010, on the bullish effect of declining European corporate bond yields
"
Say Oui-Oui To The Kiwi,
" August 3, 2010, on the strong prospects for New Zealand markets
"
Swap Market Growing Overconfident,
" August 11, 2010, on the lack of fear of higher rates in the swaption market
"
Does The Cost Of Capital Matter?,
" August 11, 2010, on the relative non-impact of costs of capital
"
Look Out, Here Comes Tomorrow,
" August 11, 2010, on the declining predictive capacity of the set-for-tomorrow swap
"
Bond Volatility Acting Abnormally,
" August 17, 2010, on the fall in bond volatility in the face of falling yields
"
Flight To...Safety?,
" August 17, 2010, on the rising sovereign CDS costs during the bond rally
"
Convexity Propelling Bond Bull,
" August 18, 2010, on convexity gains available from bullish flatteners
"
News Flash: Inflation To Drop In Five Years,
" August 25, 2010, on forward-starting inflation indicators
"
Taking Exception To The Basket Case,
" August 25, 2010, on the dispersion of returns over time
"
Exporting Lower Profit Margins,
" August 26, 2010, on import price indices
"
Yuan Revaluation Fizzles,
" September 1, 2010, on the retracement of the yuan and its cross-rate to the yen
"
Whatever Happened To The Euro Connection?,
" September 2, 2010, on the correlation between U.S. equities and the euro
"
Time Of The Season For Nothing,
" September 2, 2010, on global equity seasonality
"
Gold's Passage To India,
" September 6, 2010, on the role of dollar carry into the rupee in supporting gold
"
Freight Rates' Mixed Connections,
" September 7, 2010, on interpreting the Baltic Dry Freight index
"
Colombia Speeds Ahead,
" September 7, 2010, on the role of the dollar carry trade supporting Colombian equities
"
Canada's Commodity Connection Diminishing,
" September 15, 2010, on lowered commodity-dependence of Canadian equities
"
Less Commodity Thunder Down Under,
" September 15, 2010, on the lowered commodity-dependence of Australian equities
"
U.S. Credit Turborcharging Emerging Asia,
" September 16, 2010, on the dollar carry trade supporting South Asian markets
"
Livestock And Relative Food Price Inflation,
" September 23, 2010, on prospects for higher food prices
"
TIPS Market Not Buying Deflation Nonsense,
" September 23, 2010, on the TIPS market preparing for future inflation
"
Long Bond Price Volatility Increasing,
" September 23, 2010, on higher bond price volatility and its consequences
"
That's Not Indonesian Junk Anymore,
" September 29, 2010, on the dollar carry trade into Indonesia
"
Expensive Labor Versus Cheap Capital,
" September 29, 2010, on structural shifts in productivity
"
I Hate Ethanol And So Should You,
" September 30, 2010, on the consequences of the ethanol subsidy
"
Hard To Hate The Dollar,
" October 6, 2010, on narrowing interest rate spread returns
"
When Short Sales Were Outlawed,
" October 6, 2010, on the returns for the restricted short-sale list of 2008
"
Money-Printing And Global Illusions,
" October 7, 2010, on the illusory gains of international investing
"
Free Money, Investment And Employment,
" October 13, 2010, on the inability of low interest rates to spur employment
"
Free Money And Financial Stock Alpha,
" October 14, 2010, on increased negativity of financial stock alpha
"
U.S. Bonds Win China-Japan Spat,
" October 14, 2010, on Treasury's gains as a function of currency manipulation
"
Cotton Threading The Needle,
" October 21, 2010, on the impact of rising cotton prices
"
Inflation And Employment,
" October 21, 2010, on how increased inflation will damage employment prospects
"
When A Bet Is Not A Bet,
" October 21, 2010, on interpreting Commitment of Traders data for federal funds futures
"
Taxation, Representation And Municipal Bonds,
" October 28, 2010, on the consequences of not addressing fiscal policy
"
Yen Carry Trade, RIP,
" October 28, 2010, on the lapsing of the yen carry trade as a force in markets
"
About Those Negative Yields,
" October 28, 2010, on the implications of negative real interest rates
"
Brazil Bullish Still,
" November 4, 2010, on Brazilian markets at the start of the Rousseff era
"
Bubbles Blow Away,
" November 4, 2010, on the attempts to create an equity bubble
"
U.S. Is Japan's Safety Valve,
" November 4, 2010, on Japanese purchases of U.S. securities
"
Home Affordability In A Bubbly Market,
" November 10, 2010, on the overpricing of housing
"
Is The Mexican Peso Too Strong?,
" November 10, 2010, on Mexico's concerns regarding the peso
"
The Jackson Hole Effect,
" November 11, 2010, on switches in market behavior after QE2
"
Diversification Takes Patience,
" November 18, 2010, on cross-sectional volatility
"
Industry Group Impact Of Rising Swap Spreads,
" November 18, 2010, on the impact of rising swap spreads
"
Gimme Shelter Meets The CPI,
" November 19, 2010, on the flattening of OER
"
Hoping Foreign Investors Get Direct,
" November 24, 2010, on trends in direct foreign investment
"
The Phillips Curve Does Not Work,
" November 24, 2010, on the autoregressive nature of core CPI
"
Federal Reserve Hid In Plain Sight,
" November 25, 2010, on unexpectedly low interest rates
"
Japan Failed At Deflation Management,
" December 2, 2010, on the failure of Japan to stem deflationary expectations
"
Refiners Good...For Now,
" December 2, 2010, on the long-term problems facing the refining industry
"
Global Returns Under The Dollar's Rise And Fall,
" December 2, 2010, on which market are affected most by changes in the dollar index
"
Hedging Gold Not Free For Miners,
" December 8, 2010, on effects of gold hedging on stock prices
"
Silver's Miner Miracle,
" December 8, 2010, on the liquidity-driven rally in silver
"
Commodity-Currency Correlations Unstable,
" December 8, 2010, on the diverse correlations between various currencies and commodities
"
TIPS Are Still Bonds,
" December 16, 2010, on the interest rate risks of TIPS
"
Bond Volatility Jumped With QE2,
" December 16, 2010, on rising fixed-income volatility
"
Currency-Commodity Correlations: Round Two,
" December 16, 2010, on commodity-linked currencies
"
Don't Pooh-Pooh Peru,
" December 20, 2010, on the liquidity-fueled rise in Peruvian markets
"
Taiwan And The Carry Trades,
" December 20, 2010, on the dollar and yen carry trades into Taiwan
"
Who Can Tire Of Rubber?,
" December 29, 2010, on rubber prices and tire stocks
"
Champagne Is Getting Bubbly,
" December 29, 2010, on vintners' relative performance in France as a consumer barometer
"
Crude Oil And Natural Gas' Divergence Widens,
" December 30, 2010, on natural gas becoming very cheap relative to petroleum
"
Coal's Natural Gas Problem,
" December 31, 2010, on competition from cheap natural gas in the coal industry
"
Food Inflation Is A Core Issue,
" January 6, 2011, on the role rising food prices will play in inflation
"
Leading Indicators' Divergence Closing,
" January 6, 2011, on the status of the ECRI Weekly index of leading indicators
"
Gasoline Not A Concern Yet,
" January 7, 2011, on rising productivity of gasoline consumption
"
Israeli Stocks Follow The Shekel,
" January 12, 2011, on the linkage between Israel's relative performance and its currency
"
Free Money, Inflation And Unemployment,
" January 12, 2011, on whether money-printing can lead to employment gains
"
Agricultural Futures Pointing Higher,
" January 14, 2011, on the implications of rising agricultural futures
"
Agricultural CTAs Can Add Value,
" January 17, 2011, on outperformance of the DJ-UBS Agricultural index by CTAs
"
Who Fled The Muni Market?,
" January 19, 2011, on maturity- and credit-dependent shifts in municipal bond volatility
"
Canada's Interest Rate Problem,
" January 19, 2011, on the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Canada
"
Two Presidents, Two Markets,
" January 25, 2011, on market performance during the Bush and Obama administrations
"
Cash Is Not Corporate Trash,
" January 25, 2011, on links between returns and cash levels and dividend payouts
"
The End Of Monetary History,
" January 26, 2011, on the limits to the long-dated interest rate cycle
"
Of Money And Food,
" February 2, 2011, on whether rising food prices are attributable to monetary excess
"
India And The Limits To Carry,
" February 2, 2011, on the downturn in Indian equity markets
"
Korea's Lower Carry-Dependence,
" February 2, 2011, on the ability of Korea to prosper in the absence of a carry link
"
TIPS And Implied Inflation Forecasts,
" February 10, 2011, on TIPS' implied forecasts being better than economists'
"
Every Program Has A Sequel,
" February 10, 2011, on the link between yuan revaluation and quantitative easing
"
St. Valentine's Day (Commodity) Massacre,
" February 11, 2011, on confectioners' ability to absorb higher sugar and cocoa prices
"
North Africa / Middle East Underperformed Before Revolutions,
" February 16, 2011, on these markets' poor relative performance
"
Vietnam's Different Approach,
" February 16, 2011, on the latest devaluation of the Vietnamese dong
"
More On Money And Grain,
" February 17, 2011, on the historic frequency of grain-price spikes during money-tightening environments
"
Spread Normalization Threatens Refiners,
" February 24, 2011, on the wide refining margins for sour crude oil
"
Transports And Diesel Fuel Hedging,
" February 24, 2011, on the still-quiet basis and volatility of diesel fuel
"
There's (Still) No Such Thing As Commodities,
" February 25, 2011, on declining correlations of returns between commodity indices
"
Commodity-Linked Equities' Relative Gains To Slow,
" March 2, 2011, on relative richness of these stocks
"
Crude Oil And Inflation. Different This Time?,
" March 2, 2011, on the linkage between energy prices, money and inflation
"
Corn Is Chicken Feed,
" March 3, 2011, on the impact of higher corn prices on poultry feeders
"
Shippers And The Baltic Dry Freight Index,
" March 10, 2011, on the lack of utility in the Baltic Dry Freight index
"
Federal Funds To Walk Down LOIS Lane,
" March 10, 2011, on the artificially wide LIBOR-OIS spread
"
Commodities And Producer Prices Have Complex Linkage,
" March 10, 2011, on the asymmetric links between the two indices
"
Japan And The Risk Of Ruin,
" March 17, 2011, on the nature of Japan's volatility skew during the crisis
"
Stocks And Futures' Structural Differences,
" March 17, 2011, on the changes in technical differences between stocks and futures
"
Industry Group Impact Of The Yen,
" March 17, 2011, on the industry group impact of the stronger yen on U.S. stocks
"
Inflation Perma-Expectations,
" March 24, 2011, on rolling down the real yield curve
"
The Danger From Quality' Structural Differences,
" March 24, 2011, on the sensitivity of U.S. stocks to investment-grade yields
"
Refiners' Time Of The Season,
" March 24, 2011, on refining seasonality and its link to the mid-continent discount
"
Sector Performance And Regression To The Mean,
" March 31, 2011, on sector performance in a tightening environment
"
Central Banks Proved A Negative,
" March 31, 2011, on the G-7's forestalling of a post-crisis spike in the Japanese yen
"
The Yen Carry Trade May Return,
" March 31, 2011, on the possibility the yen carry trade could overtake the dollar carry trade
"
Swap Market's Path Dependency,
" April 7, 2011, on when higher short-term interest rates are expected
"
Inflation Beyond The Numbers,
" April 7, 2011, on inflation as a function of collective fear
"
Whatever Happened To Uber Alles?,
" April 8, 2011, on rising stresses within the Eurozone
"
Observations On The Gold/Silver Ratio,
" April 14, 2011, on the gold/silver ratio and its effect of mining and global equities
"
Base Metals And The Law Of Stuff,
" April 14, 2011, on the embedded call options in mining stocks
"
Upstream With An Energy Paddle,
" April 24, 2011, on energy exploration and production stocks
"
Food Industry Efficiencies,
" April 20, 2011, on the tame excess of food price inflation
"
Inflation And Money Illusion,
" April 20, 2011, on the linkages between financial assets and inflation expectations
"
High-Risk Bonds And Inflation Expectations,
" April 20, 2011, on prospective returns for high-yield bonds
"
Growth And Value In The QE Era,
" April 28, 2011, on liquidity-induced preferences for growth
"
Where Are These Speculators?,
" April 28, 2011, on the difficulties in locating speculators in the CFTC data
"
The Dollar Will Not Sink Treasuries,
" April 28, 2011, on the linkages between a declining dollar and stable Treasuries
"
Financials And The Limits To Money,
" May 5, 2011, on the underperformance of financial stocks in the QE era
"
Revisiting Commodities And Currencies,
" May 5, 2011, on the links between individual commodities and currencies
"
Moe, Larry And Euro,
" May 6, 2011, on the extreme bimodal distribution of euro returns
"
TIPS Jump Commodity Gun,
" May 12, 2011, on TIPS' instant capitalization of commodity prices in inflation expectations
"
TIPS Follow More Than They Lead,
" May 12, 2011, on the lag in TIPS' expectations relative to other financial indicators
"
Inflation Expectations And The Yield Curve,
" May 12, 2011, on linkages between the liquidity premium and inflation expectations
"
About That Wealth Effect,
" May 19, 2011, on the diminished wealth effect from higher stock prices
"
The Wage Squeeze Continues,
" May 19, 2011, on the inability of income to grow faster than prices
"
Mortgage Market In A Zombie State,
" May 19, 2011, on the collapse of an active mortgage derivative market
"
Peso Possibilities,
" May 26, 2011, on the problems posed by the peso's firming
"
Russia And The Opposite Of Bankruptcy,
" May 26, 2011, on the problems posed by strong capital flows into Russia
"
Sovereign Debt And Your Lying Eyes,
" May 26, 2011, on the general improvement of the global sovereign credit situation
"
Big Macs And Broken Clocks,
" June 2, 2011, on the purchasing power parity theorem
"
The Trend Is Currency Friend,
" June 2, 2011, on the recent successes of currency trend-followers
"
Currencies' Trade Weight Problem,
" June 2, 2011, on the disconnection between currencies and trade weights
"
The Stock/Housing Divergence,
" June 8, 2011, on the uniqueness of the strong stocks / weak housing combination
"
Financial Repression And The Water's Edge,
" June 8, 2011, on non-petroleum import prices
"
European Stocks To Depend On Euro,
" June 9, 2011, on the dependence of Eurozone stocks on a weaker euro
"
Gold Stocks, Dividends And Hedging,
" June 15, 2011, on the continued underperformance of gold stocks relative to bullion
"
Which Market Is Overvalued?,
" June 15, 2011, on the relative richness of corporate bonds
"
Ethanol Almost Ruined A
High Noon Moment,
" June 16, 2011, on the impending loss of ethanol's subsidies
"
The Heavy Hand In Oil Markets,
" June 23, 2011, on the IEA Release of strategic oil reserves
"
The Euro Was Never In Danger,
" June 23, 2011, on the subdued nature of option volatility on the euro
"
A Curve Too Steep,
" June 23, 2011, on the poor timing now for a bullish flattening trade
"
Natural Gas Utilities In A Sweet Spot,
" June 30, 2011, on the ability of natural gas utilities to maintain margins
"
Real And Un-Real Corporate Bond Rates,
" July 1, 2011, on inflation-adjusted corporate bond rates
"
Slouching Toward Tenancy,
" July 2, 2011, on the relative rise in apartment REITs
"
Something Rotten In Denmark,
" July 8, 2011, on Denmark's willingness to pay an interest penalty to maintain a peg
"
Money Supports Risky Bonds,
" July 8, 2011, on the effects of carry on high-yield bonds
"
Singapore Avoids The Sling,
" July 8, 2011, on the strength in Singaporean markets
"
U.S.-German Long-Term Yield Spreads,
" July 14, 2011, on the currency dependence of the yield spread
"
Treasuries Not Set Up For Big Slide,
" July 14, 2011, on low probability of a bond selloff
"
The Money Tide, Gold And Stocks,
" July 15, 2011, on diverging responses to excess liquidity
"
Floating Storage, Sinking Stocks,
" July 21, 2011, on the poor performance of tanker stocks
"
Price Stability In Japan Pleases No One,
" July 21, 2011, on the non-responsiveness to policy changes of Japan's CPI
"
Shift To Tenancy Continues,
" July 22, 2011, on a shift toward multi-family construction
"
Asia Not Picking Up Currency Pieces,
" July 28, 2011, on movements of the Asian currency index against other majors
"
Money Illusion And Stocks,
" July 29, 2011, on the poor links between stocks and net inflation accrual
"
Risk-Free In Name Only,
" July 29, 2011, on increases in very short-term Treasury bill yields
"
The Swiss Franc Carry Trade,
" August 4, 2011, on the currency's links to Eastern European markets
"
Thoughts On Sovereign Debt CDS,
" August 4, 2011, on the declining utility of sovereign CDS
"
Corporate Bond Risks Rising,
" August 5, 2011, on rising rate and credit risks for corporate bonds
"
Bond Futures' Hidden Selloff,
" August 11, 2011, on the post-FOMC rejection of a high in bond futures
"
Flight To Quality Stuck On Tarmac,
" August 11, 2011, on trading TIPS breakevens on large-change days for bonds
"
Crude Oil - Gold Non-Relationship Breaking Down,
" August 12, 2011, on the declining correlation between the two markets
"
Does U.S. Stand For Unsuitable?,
" August 18, 2011, on whether low-yielding Treasuries are still a suitable investment
"
What Is The Greek Word For Hubris?,
" August 18, 2011, on Euribor's path-dependent forecast
"
The Discussion Must Be Had,
" August 18, 2011, on the role of monetary policy in politics
"
Crude Oil-Stock Correlation High But Falling,
" August 25, 2011, on the return to a more normal lower level of correlation
"
When You're A Jet,
" August 25, 2011, on jet fuel and poor airline stock performance
"
The Fed Broke Its Inflation Thermometer,
" August 25, 2011, on the distortions to the TIPS market from yield curve compression
"
Dissecting Credit Spreads,
" August 31, 2011, on the source of rising corporate OAS levels
"
FOMC's External Credibility Greater Than Internal,
" August 31, 2011, on U.S. swaptions' outlook for short-term rates
"
Eurozone Fixed-Income Stresses Worsen,
" August 31, 2011, on instabilities in Eurozone fixed-income swap and volatility markets
"
Swiss National Bank's Final Bet,
" September 8, 2011, on the costs of the Swiss franc ceiling
"
Real Commodity Returns Often Negative,
" September 9, 2011, on the inability of many commodities to outpace the PPI
"
Gold, Platinum And Algebra,
" September 9, 2011, on the insignificance of gold prices exceeding platinum prices
"
Dissecting Muni Credit Spreads,
" September 15, 2011, on the source of rising municipal OAS levels
"
Perma-Expectations No More,
" September 15, 2011, on reduced expectations for higher short-term interest rates
"
Chinese Buying Of Euro Debt Makes Sense,
" September 16, 2011, on the likelihood for Chinese purchases of Eurozone debt
"
The Logic Of The Twist,
" September 22, 2011, on the federal government as chief beneficiary of the twist
"
Commodity-Linked Equities No Port In Storm,
" September 22, 2011, on the continued overvaluation of commodity-linked equities
"
The Dollar Carry Trade Could Unwind,
" September 22, 2011, on risks posed by a rising dollar
"
The Dollar Carry Trade And Global Equities,
" September 29, 2011, on carries into the EM and EAFE indices
"
Refining Spreads Never Got Back To Normal,
" September 30, 2011, on the continued poor outlook for refiners
"
Inflation Expectations Declining Still,
" September 30, 2011, on inflation swaps
"
Corporate Bonds Do Not Lead Stocks,
" October 4, 2011, on whether corporate bonds move ahead of stocks
"
Diversification Arrives With Time,
" October 7, 2011, on dispersion of returns over different timeframes
"
Structural Challenges Facing Muni Bonds,
" October 7, 2011, on the regulatory and market burdens facing the muni market
"
Asian Exporters Building Reserves,
" October 13, 2011, on reserve accumulation in Asian countries
"
QE2 Under Queen Elizabeth II,
" October 13, 2011, on the acceptance of lower short-term rates in the U.K.
"
Another Look At Stocks And Bonds,
" October 13, 2011, on the yield and OAS links between stocks and bonds over lead and lag times
"
Commercial Lending On The Rise,
" October 20, 2011, on implications of increased bank lending for the money supply
"
Corporate Leverage Remains High,
" October 20, 2011, on rising non-farm, non-financial leverage
"
Yield Curve Trades During The Twist,
" October 21, 2011, on poor prospects for bullish flatteners
"
Implied Correlation Has Led To High Returns,
" October 27, 2011, on the implications of the CBOE Implied Correlation index rising
"
Global Food Prices Moving Down, Pointing Up,
" October 28, 2011, on prospects for higher relative food price inflation
"
Trends In Commercial Paper Issuance,
" October 28, 2011, on the impact of the European sovereign debt situation on commercial paper issuance
"
The End Of Lockstep Correlation,
" November 3, 2011, on asset return differentiation
"
Currency Traders Confused Market For Brains,
" November 3, 2011, on poor returns for currency traders after QE2's end
"
Fixed-Income Volatility Rising,
" November 3, 2011 on rising volatility offsetting monetary stimulus
"
Trading European Inflation Expectations,
" November 10, 2011, on inflation swaps in Europe
"
Revisiting The Cost Of Being Europe,
" November 10, 2011, on divergent yield curves in Europe
"
Bond Volatility Has Been Rising,
" November 10, 2011 on negative investment implications from rising European volatility
"
Yuan Plea Falls On Deaf Ears,
" November 17, 2011, on the forward pricing indications for the yuan
"
Emerging Markets Reliance On Cheap Dollars Grows,
" November 18, 2011, on emerging markets' dollar-dependent outperformance
"
Hungary, Turkey And Others At Risk To Swiss Franc,
" November 18, 2011 on the risks posed by a Swiss franc revaluation
"
Pay Attention To Rising Interbank Stress Levels,
" November 23, 2011, on the exponential rise in LIBOR
"
TIPS Should Outperform Nominal Treasuries,
" November 23, 2011, on the effects of reported inflation exceeding expected inflation
"
South Africa Shows Vulnerability To Carry Trade Unwinding,
" November 23, 2011 on the effects of a weaker rand
"
Riskiest Financial Stocks Have Lowest Cost Of Capital,
" December 1, 2011, on weighted-average capital costs
"
Some Markets Are Shocked; Some Are Used To It,
" December 1, 2011, on the psychological acceptance of gain retracement globally
"
The Crude Oil Contango Storage Trade Worked Well,
" December 1, 2011 on the end of contango in crude oil
"
Switzerland's Negative Interest Rate Dilemma,
" December 8, 2011, on the speculative bets being made on a rising franc
"
Savings Rates Reflect Income Squeeze,
" December 8, 2011, on the decline in savings rates
"
Inflation Expectations And Industry Group Performance,
" December 9, 2011 on TIPS breakevens' effect on alpha
"
Which Industry Groups Can Take A Punch?,
" December 12, 2011, on the domestic acceptance of gain retracement
"
Which Industry Groups Are Closet Indexers?,
" December 12, 2011, on the similarity between industry group and broad market returns
"
Risk-On / Risk-Off Trade Will Continue Into 2012,
" December 12, 2011 on sector risk and reward expectations
"
Gold ETFs Affect Futures Margins,
" December 16, 2011, on asymmetric volatility injection into gold futures from ETFs
"
Credit Valuation Adjustments Will Change The World,
" December 17, 2011, on the coming ascendance of cleared interest rate swaps
"
The Euro's Impact On Grains Should Be Minor,
" December 17, 2011 on the weak linkage between the euro and grains
"
Suppression Of Financial Information To Continue,
" December 27, 2011, on the consequences of wholesale price-signal suppression
"
China-Japan Currency Deal Could Hurt U.S. Treasuries,
" December 27, 2011, on the likely loss of massive Asian purchases of U.S. Treasuries
"
The Dollar Index And The Twin Deficits,
" December 28, 2011 on the implications of narrowing deficits for the U.S. dollar
"
The Lessons Of Mexico Vs. Europe,
" January 5, 2012, on using currencies versus interest rates as an adjustment device
"
India's Inflation-Fighting Mistake
" January 5, 2012, on the self-defeating nature of short-term interest rate increases
"
The Euro And Industry Group Performance,
" January 5, 2012 on the changing impact of the euro on U.S. equities
"
Unexpectedly Low Interest Rates Arriving In Europe,
" January 12, 2012, on the arrival of perma-expectations in Euribor
"
Germans To Enjoy Funds For Bunds
" January 12, 2012, on the prospects for yield curve flatteners in Bunds
"
TIPS And The Bond Market Vigilantes,
" January 13, 2012 on the TIPS' market historic estimation bias
"
No Big Differences Between Big And Small,
" January 19, 2012, on the convergent returns between the Russell 1000 and 2000 indices
"
Two Presidents, Two Markets, Three Years
" January 19, 2012, on financial markets under Presidents Bush and Obama
"
Sector Weights Change. Does Relative Performance?,
" January 19, 2012 on changes in sector weights before and after the 2008 financial crisis
"
U.K Real Interest Rates Very Negative,
" January 23, 2012, on investor willingness to accept negative real yields on inflation-linked Gilts
"
The Natural Gas Widowmaker Should Be Tame In 2012
" January 24, 2012, on the outlook for the March-April spread in natural gas
"
Natural Gas Markets And The Wintertime Blues,
" January 29, 2012 on the insignificant long-term effects of winter weather on natural gas markets
"
Corporate Bond ETFs Now Wagging Index Dog,
" February 2, 2012, on how bond ETFs are forcing broad indices to conform to the ETFs themselves
"
Has Quantitative Easing Boosted Underlying Equity Markets
" February 2, 2012, on the relative performance of national stock market indices after QE
"
Not All Volatility Indices Make Sense,
" February 2, 2012 on the behavior of gold and euro volatility indices
"
Is Growth Ready To Outperform Value?,
" February 9, 2012, on signs growth stocks are poised to outperform at last
"
Refiners Get A Gift
" February 9, 2012, on the effects of the mid-continent dislocation's return
"
Declining Credit Risk Reinforcing Stock Market Rally,
" February 9, 2012 on the effects of declining CDS levels
"
Swap Dealers Corner Wheat Market; Film At 11:00,
" February 16, 2012, on the dominant role of commodity indexers in the wheat market
"
Re-Dissecting Credit Spreads
" February 16, 2012, on the OAS levels narrowing via lower corporate rates
"
The Cattle Crush Spread Heats Up,
" February 16, 2012 on the effects of negative cattle-feeding margins
"
European Banks Hit The Pause That Refreshes,
" February 23, 2012, on the slowdown in bank stress indicators' improvement
"
Risk And Return Go Back To The Future
" February 23, 2012, on the realignment of risk and return amongst U.S. asset classes
"
European Corporate Bonds Bullish For Stocks,
" February 23, 2012 on the bullish implications of the European corporate bond rally
"
Central Banks And The Mirror, Mirror On The Wall,
" March 1, 2012, on distortions in TIPS and inflation swaps
"
Yen Remains Hard To Drive Lower
" March 1, 2012, on long-term strength in the yen
"
The Japanese Fiscal Year No Longer Important,
" March 1, 2012 on seasonality in Japanese capital flows
"
You Can Short A Quiet Market,
" March 8, 2012, on realized volatility and prospective return
"
Tinker, Taylor, Fed Funds, Why
" March 8, 2012, on why the target federal funds rate should be higher
"
Will China Take Up Where Federal Reserve Leaves Off?,
" March 8, 2012 on the likelihood of increased Chinese buying of Treasuries
"
Do Not Give Gasoline All The Credit,
" March 15, 2012, on the simultaneous rallies in gasoline and equities
"
Shedding Treasury Market Insurance
" March 15, 2012, on declining prospects for long-maturity bullish flatteners
"
TED Spread And Fair Value,
" March 15, 2012, on stock levels and interbank stress
"
Is The Yen Carry Trade Ready To Return,
" March 22, 2012, on the impact of Japan's reclamation of the cheapest currency to borrow
"
Credit Default Swaps Really Do Change Behavior
" March 22, 2012, on research into credit default swaps' propensity to increase bankruptcies
"
The Long-Term Downtrend In Interest Rates Could Continue,
" March 22, 2012 on the continuation of the long-term downtrend in long-term interest rates
"
Healthcare Baselines And Handicapping The Court,
" March 29, 2012, on healthcare industry group returns
"
Healthcare Industry Risk Measures
" March 29, 2012, on relative risk measures in the healthcare sector
"
Gold And Trend Exhaustion,
" March 29, 2012 on the gap between gold and gold miners
"
Lumber Traders Are Never Board,
" April 5, 2012, on the implications of lumber's forward curve
"
The Dollar Index Winning By Default
" April 5, 2012, on the excess carry returns into the dollar index
"
Canada And The Costs Of Sobriety,
" April 5, 2012 on the migration of Canadian markets away from resource dependence
"
European Banking Hound Did Not Bark,
" April 12, 2012, on muted European banking stress indications
"
Respect The Euro's Resilience
" April 12, 2012, on the embedded options in the euro
"
Good News And Bad News On Food Prices,
" April 13, 2012 on the relative food price outlook for 2012
"
Risk And Return In A Risk-On Era,
" April 19, 2012, on the weak relationship between returns and realized risk
"
A Caution On Owners' Equivalent Rent
" April 20, 2012, on the narrow basis for superior apartment REIT returns
"
Stock Returns And Inflation Expectations,
" April 20, 2012 on the disconnection between stock returns and net inflation accrual
"
What Is Looser Than Loose?,
" April 26, 2012, on signals from the GCF repo indices
"
Low Rates Will Create Bad Habits In Germany Eventually
" April 26, 2012, on intra-European bond spreads
"
Asset-Backed Commercial Paper's Good And Bad News,
" April 26, 2012 on conditions in the ABCP market
"
Occupy Wall Street And Liberate The Yield Curve,
" May 2, 2012 on the artificial suppression of long-term interest rates
"
Inflation, Employment And I Told You So,
" May 4, 2012, on the inability of higher inflation expectations to create employment
"
Where Inflation Works For You
" May 4, 2012, on prospects for high-yield and emerging market bonds
"
How French Elections Affected German Bunds,
" May 10, 2012 on a buying panic for Bunds
"
The Upward Convergence Of Natural Gas Will Remain Difficult To Play
" May 17, 2012, on the burden of negative roll yield
"
High-Yield Convertibles Should Underperform,
" May 24, 2012 on relative performance of convertible bond styles
"
Who Could Use Some Higher Rates?,
" May 31, 2012 on industry groups hurt by lower long-term rates
"
Miners Underperforming In Money Gusher
" June 6, 2012, on the relative performance of global mining equities
"
Whose Behavior Changed In Recent Bond Rally?,
" June 13, 2012 on industry group returns after the most recent bond rally
"
Twist Thy Neighbor As Thyself
" June 20, 2012, on U.S. outperformance following Operation Twist
"
Higher Commodity Costs Will Matter For Food Stocks,
" June 28, 2012 on the impact of higher grain prices on food stocks
"
Are Credit Swaps Squeezing High-Yield?,
" December 6, 2012 on lower post-insurance returns on high-yield bonds
"
Industry Group Returns And QE Whatever
" December 13, 2012, on switches in industry group performance before and after QE3's execution
"
Abusive Monetary Policies And Inflation,
" December 19, 2012 on the paradox of low inflation in the face of monetary expansion
"
Capitalization And Relative Performance,
" December 27, 2012 on capitalization as a factor in relative performance
"
When Does Small-Capitalization Fundamental Indexation Pay?,
" December 30, 2012 on market conditions conducive to fundamental indexation
"
Two Warning Signs For Treasuries
" January 9, 2013, on rising real interest rates and poor returns on flatteners
"
Alfred E. Newman's European Vacation,
" January 17, 2013 on bearish indications for European bonds
"
Transportation Stocks' Divergent Responses To Fuel Costs,
" January 23, 2013 on rails' superior performance in a rising fuel price environment
"
Brazil And Colombia Take Opposite Paths,
" January 30, 2013 on Colombia moving to weaken the peso while Brazil tries to boost the real
"
The Predictable Fate Of Commodity Indexation
" February 7, 2013, on poor returns for long-only commodity indices
"
Key Indicators Negative For The Euro,
" February 14, 2013 on bearish indications for the euro
"
British Pound Set For A Dunkirk In Currency Wars,
" February 21, 2013 on positive prospects for the pound on the cross-rate
"
Diesel Fuel And Future Transportation Problems,
" February 25, 2013 on the switch to ULSD for the heating oil futures contract
"
The Yen Carry Trade Makes A Comeback
" March 7, 2013, on the rising relative beta of the yen carry trade in global markets
"
Has China Repegged The Yuan,
" March 13, 2013 on the implications of renewed stability in the dollar/yuan rate
"
There Is Plenty Of Risk Aversion,
" March 20, 2013 on ever-lower negative real interest rates
"
Declining Interest In Gold,
" March 27, 2013 on negative indications from declining trading interest in gold
"
Hierarchy Of Risk And Return Returning To Normal,
" April 4, 2013 on the move back to textbook risk/reward relationships
"
QE-Forever: Ben Goes Self-Basting
" April 11, 2013, on the difficulties associated with ending QE
"
The Twist Mattered For Gold,
" April 18, 2013 on the link between gold and fixed-income risk measures
"
Weaker Eurozone Credit Benefited From Their Problems,
" April 25, 2013 on lower borrowing costs in the Eurozone periphery
"
Industry Group Boats On Monetary Tide,
" May 2, 2013 on which industry groups benefited most from global QE
"
Silver ETFs Tell A Different Story,
" May 9, 2013 on the role silver ETFs play as a buyer of last resort
"
Some Surprises In Stock Market Risk
" May 16, 2013, on the declining dollar value of realized volatility
"
Japanese Past Performance Predicts Future Results,
" May 23, 2013 on the inability of Japan to spur rising inflation
"
Mortgage Market Cure Will Be Worse Than The Disease,
" May 29, 2013 on negative implications of mortgage subsidization
"
The FOMC And Fear Itself
" June 6, 2013, on the FOMC unnecessary creation of market confusion
"
Real Rates And Execution Vacuums,
" June 13, 2013 on the one-sided consequences of rising real rates
"
When Japanese Investors Got It Right,
" June 20, 2013 on preemptive selling of emerging Asian markets by Japanese investors
"
TIPS Are Still Bonds. Still,
" June 27, 2013 on TIPS' interest rate risk
"
Mexico At Impending Risk
" July 2, 2013, on Mexico's exposure to higher interest rates and negative export earnings
"
Homebuilders' Optimism: No Gimme Shelter Here,
" July 11, 2013 on the disconnection between homebuilders' sentiment and equity performance
"
Mortgage REITs To Remain Pressured,
" July 18, 2013 on the negative outlook for mortgage REITs
"
Downturn In Commodity Prices Will Not Reduce Producer Prices,
" July 25, 2013 on the ability of processors to capture lower commodity prices
"
Analysts As Coincident Indicators,
" July 31, 2013 on forward-looking P/Es and stock prices
"
Single-Currency Carry Trades And Global Equity Returns,
" August 8, 2013 on the importance of national yield curves
"
Chinese Buying Could Render Taper Moot
" August 15, 2013, on how Chinese buying could offset the Federal Reserve
"
Who Is Harmed And Unharmed By Higher Long-Term Rates,
" August 22, 2013 on industry group sensitivity to higher long-term rates
"
Cost Of Capital, Interest Rate Exposure And REITs,
" August 28, 2013 on REITs exposure to both higher short- and long-term rates
"
Turkey's Problems Different From Other Emerging Markets',
" September 1, 2013 on the euro/lira cross-rate
"
Tankers Presenting A Buy-Low Opportunity
" September 6, 2013, on improving prospects for crude oil tanker equities
"
Foreign Direct Investment Lower Than It Should Be,
" September 12, 2013 on persistently low foreign direct investment
"
Latin American Markets Were Already Dollar-Dependent,
" September 19, 2013 on the effects of extended QE for Latin American markets
"
Oil & Gas Storage Operators And Forward Curves,
" September 26, 2013 on storage stocks as a leading indicator of forward curves
"
Fear And Greed In Corporate Bond ETFs,
" October 3, 2013 on increased risk-acceptance in high-yield ETFs
"
Industry Group Shifts During Government Shutdown
" October 10, 2013, on group responses to the shutdown
"
Sunday, Sunday At Beautiful S&P Futures Drag-a-Way,
" October 17, 2013 on the effects of Sunday evening gaps
"
Natural Gas Should Make Winter Mild,
" October 24, 2013 on outlook for natural gas prices
"
Healthcare Groups In The ObamaCare Era,
" October 31, 2013 on healthcare group responses to the ACA rollout
"
Israeli Stocks Sidestep The Shekel,
" October 31, 2013 on strong stock performance in the face of a weakening currency
"
Lower Grain Prices Not Benefiting Food Processors,
" November 4, 2013 on the poor relative performance of food processors
"
High-Yield Bonds Have Their Limits,
" November 7, 2013 on limits to credit-spread compression
"
Commodity Indices Continue To Struggle,
" November 9, 2013 on multiple negative trends in commodity indices
"
More To Emerging Markets Than Free Money
" November 14, 2013, on limits to carry's effects
"
Base Metals To Remain Flat,
" November 15, 2013 on mixed signals for base metals
"
National Fuel Gas,
" November 14, 2013 on a gas stock's favorable situation
"
Chile And Copper,
" November 21, 2013 on negative prospects for Chilean markets
"
Swaption Market Still Looking At March Taper At Earliest,
" November 21, 2013 on fixed-income complacency
"
Savings Rates Indicate Plenty Of Risk Aversion,
" November 27, 2013 on high savings rates despite low interest rates
"
Refiners In A Sweet Spot,
" November 27, 2013 on the effects of rising distillate exports
"
VSTOXX Reacts Quickly To Euro Stoxx 50,
" December 5, 2013 on the forward curve of VSTOXX futures
"
VSTOXX Meets Fear And Regret,
" December 6, 2013 on price-time model for the VSTOXX
"
Trade, Currencies And Competitive Devaluation,
" December 12, 2013 on long-term patterns in trade weights and currencies
"
A Market Of Sectors
" December 12, 2013, on the implications of rising P/E and declining sector volatility levels
"
New Dollar Index, Same Old Problems,
" December 19, 2013 on the
Bloomberg
dollar index
"
Revisiting Gold And The Twist,
" December 19, 2013 on the negative implications for gold of declining high-yield credit spreads
"
Trolls, Pills, Chips And Thrills On An Intellectual Property Exchange,
" December 25, 2013 on the concept of trading license rights
"
Thoughts On Trading Systems,
" December 26, 2013 on approaches to algorithmic trading system design
"
Winners And Losers From Higher Short-Term Rates,
" January 2, 2014 on the industry group impact of two-year Treasury yields
"
The Euro's Trading Patterns Changed As Machines Took Over,
" January 3, 2014 on changing intraday trading patterns over time
"
A Rare Switch In Crude Oil - U.S. Equities Relationship,
" January 9, 2014 on the emerging negative correlation at lower crude oil price levels
"
TIPS And The Performance Toss-Up
" January 9, 2014, on TIPS' long-term returns matching those of long-term Treasuries
"
Gold And ETF Trading; Do Not Confuse Cause And Effect,
" January 16, 2014, on the relationship between gold prices and ETF ownership
"
ETFs Cannot Find Silver In A Gold Mine,
" January 16, 2014 on silver ETF holders willingness to keep buying in the face of losses
"
Dollar Carry Trade's Impact On Global Equities Increasing,
" January 23, 2014 on the increasingly direct link between equities and the dollar carry trade
"
Killing A Currency Is Difficult,
" January 23, 2014 on the skewed returns of low-yielding currencies
"
QE Has Not Been As Important As We Thought,
" January 30, 2014 on rising statistical equivalence between QE regimes
"
Australia And The Resource Curse,
" January 30, 2014 on the negative implications of Australia's rising resource dependency
"
When Free Francs Were Too Expensive,
" February 6, 2014 on declining borrowing of francs in EEMEA markets
"
Aluminum As A Financial Asset. Who Knew?
" February 6, 2014, on the Midwest aluminum premium
"
Dow Industrial - S&P 500 Disconnects Not Unusual,
" February 13, 2014, on the rising number of opposite-sign days
"
Brazil Approaching Attractive Valuations,
" February 13, 2014 on Brazilian equities become cheap for U.S. investors
"
Agricultural Futures Trying To Make Up For Lost Time,
" February 19, 2014 on a short-term rally in agricultural futures
"
Natural Gas As The Beat Goes On,
" February 20, 2014 on shifts in the natural gas forward curve
"
China To Offset Great Taper Caper,
" February 27, 2014 on the implications of a weaker yuan for global markets
"
Fixed-Income Markets Wising Up To QE Tricks,
" February 27, 2014 on the declining impact of QE on fixed-income returns
"
Convertibles Have Turned Into Equities,
" March 6, 2014 on convertible bond indices' near-unitary delta
"
The Yuan And Commodity-Linked Equities,
" March 6, 2014 on the benefits of a weaker yuan for commodity-linked equities
"
Industrial Metals' Decline Not A Negative Indicator
" March 13, 2014, on the commonality of rising equities and declining industrial metals
"
Coffee Perks Up Agricultural Index,
" March 13, 2014, on the skewed returns with the DJ-UBS Agricultural index
"
Economic Data Might Surprise, But Where Is The Value?,
" March 20, 2014 on the irrelevance of the economic surprise index for financial markets
"
Chinese Markets Not Affecting Treasuries,
" March 20, 2014 on the non-relationship between Chinese markets and Treasury returns
"
Productivity Of Electricity Usage Climibing,
" March 27, 2014 on rising GDP/MWH ratios and their effect on relative electric utility returns
"
Refiners Would Benefit From Misquided SPR Release,
" March 27, 2014 on refiners as the beneficiaries of a SPR release
"
Signal, Noise And A Cup Of H.F. Tea,
" April 2, 2014 on declining interday volatility
"
Bunds Should Outperform Treasuries,
" April 4, 2014 on prospective relative returns
"
Health Care Sector Risks Rising,
" April 10, 2014 on rising implied volatility and CDS costs in the healthcare sector
"
High Risk In Corporate Bonds
" April 10, 2014, on the full valuation of high-yield bonds
"
The Dollar Did Not Rally During Recent Downturn,
" April 16, 2014, on the selloff in the dollar while stocks fell
"
Carry Trades Can Propel Latin American Markets,
" April 16, 2014 on Latin markets benefiting from a renewed carry trade
"
Impending Price Risk For Natural Gas,
" April 24, 2014 on the implications of low natural gas inventories
"
Mortgage REITs Benefiting From Yield Gap,
" April 24, 2014 on mortgage REITs benefiting from their bonds' rate gap to stock dividends
"
Will Cinco de Mayo Sink-o Da Peso?,
" May 1, 2014 on risks to the peso
"
Lies And The Lying LIBOR At New Lows,
" May 1, 2014 on new lows in various short-term interest rates
"
Long-Term Treasuries Caught The Haven Bid,
" May 8, 2014 on the bullish flattening of the Treasury yield curve
"
Getting Ready For A Euro Carry Trade
" May 10, 2014, on the implications of a Eurozone monetary ease
"
Eurodollar Futures Positions Reveal Little,
" May 15, 2014, on the imbalance in Eurodollar commitment of traders' positions
"
Revisiting The Large/Small Division In Performance,
" May 16, 2014 on factors behind large stocks' outperformance
"
Japan Shows QE Exit Easier Said Than Done,
" May 21, 2014 on the drive to new lows in real Japanese interest rates
"
Japanese Ease Could Be Bullish For Equities,
" May 21, 2014 on the consequences of any new Japanese monetary ease
"
Observations On The Gold/Silver Ratio,
" May 31, 2014, on the post-Twist reversal in the GSR's implications
"
Real Men Crush Beans,
" June 6, 2014 on the new-crop crush and agribusiness equities
"
You'll Have To Pay More Now To Pay Less Later For Beef,
" June 14, 2014 on declining cattle-feeding margins
"
For A Correction Lasting More Than Four Hours, Call Your Central Bank,
" June 22, 2014 on the dollar value of stock market volatility
"
Who Wins From Stronger Canadian Dollar?,
" June 30, 2014 on the industry group impact of a stronger Canadian dollar
"
The Floor Is Rising Under The Yield Curve,
" July 10, 2014 on the yield curve's flattening from higher short-term rates
"
What Happens After Rain Makes Grain,
" July 17, 2014 on the impact of declining grain prices
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