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This is a compendium of Howard L. Simons' SFO Magazine articles from September 2004 through the end of the magazine's life in August 2011.
"
Stock Market Spreads: Narrower Decisions, Wider Horizons,
"
September 2004, on pairs trading, alpha, and index spreads;
"
Step On A Crack,"
October 2004, on energy crack spread trading;
"
Currency Traders Need To Get Cross,
"
November 2004, on currency cross-rate trading;
"
Market Magical Mystery Tour,
"
December 2004, on yield curve trading;
"
Old McDonald Had A Spread,
"
January 2005, on grain market spreads;
"
One Foot Firmly On The Ocean,"
May 2005, on the role of ocean freight rates in financial markets;
"
The Myth of 'Commodities',"
July 2005, on the construction of commodity indices;
"
Long-Only Commodity Indices Fall Short,"
August 2005, on the impact of commodity indexation;
"
Economic Soft Patches Meet Commodity Hard Assets,"
September 2005, on base metals as market indicators;
"
Tracking Macro Factors Impact On Stocks,
"
October 2005, on a model to assess sectoral impact of macroeconomic factors;
"
Did The Federal Reserve Save Us From OPEC?,"
November 2005, on how monetary policy mitigated the damage from higher oil prices;
"
Stocks Float On A Sea Of Bonds,"
December 2005, on the importance of corporate bond default costs;
"
A Lethargic Look At Energy,"
January 2006, on the 2006 energy markets;
"
Precious Times For Gold,"
February 2006, on the divergence of gold from its traditional indicators;
"
The Blue Flame Of Death,"
March 2006, on the volatile natural gas market;
"
Welcome The Flat Yield Curve,"
April 2006, on bond returns and the yield curve;
"
The Yield Curve And Financial Stocks,"
May 2006, on the impact of the yield curve on financial groups;
"
Games With Commodity-Linked Equities,"
June 2006, on the relationship between commodities and commodity-linked equities;
"
Declaring Independence From Inflation Misconceptions,"
July 2006, on macroeconomic indicators of inflation;
"
Financial Markets' Inflation Signals,"
August 2006, on financial market indicators of inflation;
"
Gold And Oil Go Together Like Oil And Water,"
September 2006, on why the two commodities should not be treated similarly;
"
Convertible Bonds: Stock, Bond, Both Or Neither?,"
October 2006, on hybrid trading patterns in convertibles;
"
Betting On Volatility,"
November 2006, on VIX futures and options;
"
Refining Margins To Stay Strong,"
December 2006, on refining margins;
"
Oil Industry Spreads: Where Technicals Meet Fundamentals,"
January 2007, on use of oil industry spreads as a forecasting tool;
"
Stability And Breakout In The Euro,"
February 2007, on market-derived indicators for trading the euro;
"
Discretion Is The Better Part of Policy,"
March 2007, on using the LIBOR curve to assess Federal Reserve policy;
"
More Fun With Commodity-Linked Equities,"
April 2007, on the impact of commodity indexation on commodity-linked equities;
"
The Illusion Of TIPS Protection,"
May 2007, on the inability of TIPS to provide actual inflation protection;
"
What
Really
Pushes Stock Prices,"
June 2007, on weighted impact of various market factors;
"
Corporations Are Not Capital Processors,"
July 2007, on the economic value-added link to stock prices;
"
Corporates Have Curves, Too,"
August 2007, on the interpretation of corporate yield curves;
"
Follow The Money With REITs,"
September 2007, on REITs as inflation and stock market indicators;
"
MEW And You,"
November 2007, on home equity financing;
"
Not Your Father's Utility Stocks,"
December 2007, on the performance of utility stocks;
"
Two Cheers For Productivity,"
January 2008, on economic impact of productivity;
"
Lead, China And Toys,"
February 2008, a satirical look at the issue of lead-contaminated toys;
"
China Will Not Be Exporting Inflation,"
March 2008, on the impact of a rising yuan;
"
Food Price Inflation Bites,"
April 2008, on rising food price inflation;
"
A Simple Bet On The Fed,"
May 2008, on binary options on the federal funds rate;
"
Is There Green In Green?,"
June 2008, on environmental investing;
"
Soybeans, Corn And Food Price Inflation,"
July 2008, on distortions resulting from the volatile soybean-corn spread;
"
When Stocks And Bonds Disconnect,"
August 2008, on relative value considerations between stocks and bonds;
"
We Are Becoming Japan Now,"
September 2008, on parallels between the U.S. and Japan;
"
Eurodollars And Macro Turning Points,"
October 2008, on interpreting the forward curve of Eurodollars;
"
A Saving Grace,"
November 2008, on the implications of rising savings rates;
"
Positive Attitude, Negative Yields,"
December 2008, on negative real interest rates;
"
The Great Unwind Spreads Into 2009,"
January 2009, on the macroeconomic fallout of the credit crunch;
"
Thinking About Stocks In Interest Rate Terms,"
February 2009, on pricing single stock futures;
"
The Sweet Taste Of Success,"
March 2009, on the links between sugar and energy markets;
"
Taking A WACC At Corporations,"
April 2009, on the weighted average cost of capital;
"
Fuel In Canada's Fields,"
May 2009, on canola's role in the biodiesel market;
"
Pushing The Limit On Government Finances,"
June 2009, on the implications of rising sovereign credit risk;
"
Trading The Russell Index Spreads,"
July 2009, on the Russell 1000 - Russell 2000 index spread;
"
A Baleful Look At Cotton,"
August 2009, on factors affecting the cotton market
"
A Short Above Zero,"
September 2009, on going short Eurodollars at low yields;
"
The Wealth Shock And Confidence,"
October 2009, on how the wealth shock affects different age cohorts;
"
Utilities Shocked By Carbon Cap,"
November 2009, on the effects of cap-and-trade on the electric utility industry;
"
Policy Shocks And Financial Shocks,"
December 2009, on the effects of government intervention in the financial sector;
"
The Capital Kindness Of Strangers,"
January 2010, on foreign direct investment;
"
Can You Create A Corporate Bond Bubble?"
February 2010, on the influence of corporate bond ETFs;
"
Integrated Oil Companies And Crude Oil Prices"
March 2010, on whether these firms are a play on crude oil;
"
Crude Oil & Natural Gas: The Spread That Isn't"
April 2010, on the phantom spread between the two markets;
"
No One Respects A Quantitative Easer"
May 2010, on the underperformance of countries whose central banks eased quantitatively;
"
Aluminum, Markets And Global Growth"
June 2010, on the linkages between Chinese aluminum demand, prices and equity valuations;
"
When Instability Is Stable"
July 2010, on the long-running expectations for higher short-term interest rates;
"
Do Analysts Add Value?"
August 2010, on the ability of fundamental analysts to forecast even given forward-looking information;
"
Coal Goes On Steel Wheels Tour"
September 2010, on the equity market impact of coal prices;
"
Lumber Does Grow On Trees"
October 2010, on the links between lumber's forward curve, interest rates and housing;
"
The Yield Curve And Inflation Expectations"
November 2010, on the links between TIPS breakevens and the shape of the yield curve;
"
Platinum And The Gold Rush"
December 2010, on the platinum market and gold-platinum spreads;
"
Treasury Bond Risk And Return"
January 2011, on net carry returns by maturity in the Treasury market;
"
Europe Could Not Fool Mother Nature"
February 2011, on long-term interest rate differentials in the Eurozone;
"
Are Those Rates Real?"
March 2011, on the implications of the real/inflation expectations mix in interest rates;
"
Sovereign Credit Risk And Inflation"
May 2011, on the links between expected inflation and Treasury CDS levels; and
"
Remembrance Of High Inflation Past"
August 2011, on market performance during the late-1970s/early 1980s inflation
Home
Archived Publications
Macro Environment Roundup
Futures / Modern Trader
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Simons Research