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Simons Research
This is a compendium of Howard L. Simons' articles on RealMoney.com from October 1999 through April 2016. The dates refer to when the article was written. The published title of the articles may differ from those seen below.
1."
Hey Crude, Don't Make It Bad,
" October 24, 1999, on the threat to financial markets from higher energy prices
2."
Pedal To The Metal In Inflation Hunt,
" October 30, 1999, on metals prices as an inflation barometer
3."
Strange Currency
", November 7, 1999, on factors affecting the Japanese yen
4."
My Word Is My Bund,
" November 14, 1999, on European rate spreads
5."
The Heat Is On,
" November 19, 1999, on heating oil / natural gas spreads
6."
Oh, No! There Goes Mexico
", November 26, 1999, on Mexican equities
7."
Thy Daily Bread
", December 3, 1999, on grain prices as an inflation barometer
8."
Trees Grow To The Sky, Don't They
", December 11, 1999, on the NASDAQ rally
9."
It's Big, It's Cold, It's Canada!,
" December 18, 1999, on Canadian stocks
10."
How Now, Dow Jones,
" December 24, 1999, on the Industrial / Transport divergence
11."
A Travesty Of A Mockery Of A Sham,
" December 31, 1999, on Internet valuations
12."
A Tale Of Twelve Cities,
" January 8, 2000, on British / Continental rate spreads
13."
Trading Like A Commodity,
" January 16, 2000, on quiescent commodity prices
14."
Throw 'Em A Curve,
" January 23, 2000, on yield curve implications for equities
15."
The Miner's Canary,
" January 28, 2000, on Eastern European markets
16."
It Keeps Going And Going,
" February 6, 2000, on the NASDAQ rally
17."
Pedal To The (Base) Metal
,
" February 13, 2000, on base metals prices
18."
The Index From Ipanema,
" February 18, 2000, on Brazilian stocks
19."
Converge/Divergence: A Real Gilt Trip,
" February 25, 2000, on British financial markets
20."
Black Gold, Texas Tea,
" March 5, 2000, on oil-related stocks
21."
The Other Divergence,
" March 11, 2000, on the Dow Jones Transportation Average
22."
Diamonds Are A Boy's Best Trend,
" March 18, 2000, on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
23."
Romance Without Finance Ain't Got A Chance,
" March 25, 2000, on financial stocks
24."
A Basis In Fact,
" March 29, 2000, on the basis of stock index futures
25."
After The Fall,
" April 8, 2000, on the effects of a drop in crude oil prices
26."
We Can Be Heroes, Just For One Day,
" April 16, 2000, on the NASDAQ collapse
27."
Fight To Quality
", April 21, 2000, on safe haven responses to market crashes
28."
Treats In REIT's
", April 26, 2000, on opportunities in real estate
29."
Rain Makes Grain
", May 4, 2000, on food processors' stocks
30."
The Market's Expecting,
" May 10, 2000, on interest rate expectations
31."
R-E-S-P-E-C-T, That's What These Stocks Get From Me,
" May 21, 2000, on utility stocks
32."
The Gas Bubble,
" May 29, 2000, on the rising price of natural gas
33."
Toot-Toot-Tootsie Good Buy (For Bonds),
" June 3, 2000, on confectioner stocks
34."
Thin May Be In, But Fat's Where It's At
", June 11, 2000, on dairy stocks
35."
When Elephants Dance,
" June 17, 2000, on central bank policies
36."
If You Can't Beat Them, Don't Join Them, Either,
" June 25, 2000, on oil refining stocks
37."
So, Where's The Bull Market In Energy Stocks,
" July 2, 2000, on the relationship between energy stocks and their underlying commodity prices
38."
Mexican Stocks: Won't Get Fooled Again
", July 8, 2000, on post-PRI market
39."
Money Doesn't Grow On Trees. Coffee Does,
" July 16, 2000, on coffee stocks
40."
No Delinquency For This Miner,
" July 23, 2000, on copper stocks
41."
Beaten To A Pulp,
" July 30, 2000, on pulp and paper stocks
42."
The Converging Divergence,
" August 5, 2000, on the NASDAQ's underperformance
43."
Volatility: A Yogi For The BARRA's
,
" August 13, 2000, on the growth / value split
44."
Where's The Bounce In Rubber,
" August 19, 2000, on tire and rubber stocks
45."
Is It Safe To Go Back In The Water Yet,
" October 15, 2000, on whether the market had bottomed
46."
Didn't You Used To Be The Dow,
" November 6, 2000, on the declining utility of the index
47."
The Most Dangerous Game
", November 16, 2000, on Federal Reserve policy
48."
Economies Don't Land. Markets Do,
" December 2, 2000, on the need for a rate cut
49."
Hope Springs Eternal, But Not Yet,
" December 16, 2000, on bear market rallies
50."
The Outcome Of Rate Cuts,
" December 27, 2000, on what to expect from lower rates
51."
Single Stock Futures: A Solution In Search Of A Problem,
" January 21, 2001, on the prospects for single stock futures
52."
Be Fruitful And Expand Multiples,
" February 3, 2001, on the market's ability to act well in advance of the central banks
53."
Fear Inflation Now,
" February 15, 2001, on rising anticipation of inflation
54."
So, How Do You Feel About Confidence?
", March 2, 2001, on consumer sentiment indicators
55."
Some Cheer From Commodities,
" March 18, 2001, on commodity deflation;
56."
Remember The Money Supply?
", March 31, 2001 on the importance of the monetary base
57."
Currencies: A Way Out Of The Mess,
" July 1, 2001, on the global economy's need to maintain high-growth policies
58."
The Market That Cried Wolf
", July 7, 2001, on declining prospects for growth against value
59."
Don't Make Me Cry, Argentina!
" July 14, 2001, on the latest Argentine financial crisis
60."
Sheik, Prattle, And Roll,
" July 21, 2001, on the deflationary implications of commodity prices
61."
Economics Through The Looking Glass,
" July 28, 2001, on the implications of lower capital spending
62."
The British Are Coming!
", August 4, 2001, on relative interest rate policies in Europe.
63."
All That Glitters Isn't Gold,
" August 12, 2001, on prospects for gold and gold stocks
64."
Collateral Damage In The Brokerage Sector,
" August 18, 2001, on increased technology linkage for brokerage stocks
65."
The Joy of SOX
", August 25, 2001, on whether the semiconductor index leads the Nasdaq Composite
66."
Weighting For The Sun (W)
", September 1, 2001, on the effect of differential weights on the Nasdaq Composite/NDX spread
67."
Get A Job
", September 8, 2001, on the influence of the unemployment rate on financial markets
68."
Just In Time
", September 15, 2001, on the economic impact of inventory policies
69."
Fear Itself
", September 23, 2001, on the extraordinary market conditions following the terrorist attacks
70."
Stealing The Rope With Which To Hang Us
", September 24, 2001, on suspicious option trades on airline stocks
71."
Commodity Prices: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
", September 29, 2001, on negative implications of lower commodity prices
72."
Platinum Group Metals: Catalysts For Recovery,
" October 6, 2001, on the negative implications of lower platinum group prices
73."
Natural Gas: (Forward) Curves You Can't Ignore
", October 13, 2001, on the high hedge costs for natural gas users
74."
Commodities! Huh! What Are They Good For?
" October 21, 2001, on an impending move higher in commodity prices
75."
Bending Over Backwards To Manage Risk
", October 27, 2001, on a selection algorithm for single stock futures
76."
When Currencies Are Resourceful,
" November 3, 2001, on the links between commodity prices and currencies.
77."
Inflation And Me,
" November 10, 2001, on the bullish implications of declining inflation
78."
The Many Uses of Single Stocks
", November 15, 2001, on the interest rate savings from single stock futures
79."
Disinflation And The Dollar,
" November 23, 2001, on the strong dollar implications of weak bank lending
80."
Different Tools, Different Rules,
" December 1, 2001, on hedge costs in single stock futures
81."
The Market's Hauling. Are Ships?
" December 6, 2001, on the implications of tanker rates for oil prices
82."
Rising Sun, Sinking Yen,
" December 16, 2001, on the implications of Japan's weak yen policies
83."
Single Stock Futures And The Alpha Bet,
" December 18, 2001, on one application for single stock futures
84."
Reasons To Cheer After A Dreadful Year
", December 25, 2001, on an upbeat forecast for 2002
85."
The Long And Short Of It
", January 5, 2002, on pairs strategies for single stock futures
86."
A Polished Approach To Silver Stocks,
" January 11, 2002, on silver-related equities
87."
Stocks And Futures: Vive Le Difference,
" January 17, 2002, on different technical trading patterns in the two markets
88."
Cocoa And Valentines: The Other Fannie Maes,
" January 26, 2002, on opportunities in chocolatier stocks
89."
Palm Oil And Palm Pilots
", February 2, 2002, on differing impacts of higher edible oil prices
90."
It's Only Life And Fortune, But It's Sacred Honor,
" February 9, 2002, on issues of corporate governance
91."
Pulp Fictions
", February 16, 2002, on pulp and paper prices and forest product stocks
92."
Coal Outlook Not Black
", February 18, 2002, on a positive view of coal stocks
93."
Get Ready To Rock,
" March 1, 2002, on the prospects for narrowing credit spreads
94."
Countries Behaving Badly
", March 9, 2002, on opportunities created by Japanese monetary policies
95."
In Fertile Fields
", March 16, 2002, on fertilizer stocks
96."
Using Options To Trade Index Spreads
", March 23, 2002, on the spread between the NDX and SPX
97."
Incredible Edible Profits,
" March 30, 2002, on egg-related equities
98."
The Brady Bunch,
" April 7, 2002, on country risk premia in Latin Brady bonds
99."
Bad Government Policies Do Have Consequences
", April 13, 2002, on protectionism and Fed fears
100."
Tankers And Bankers Agree: Crude's Looking Strong
", April 20, 2002, on the implications of low shipping rates
101."
Bulls, Bears, and ... Hogs?
" April 28, 2002, on the consequences of protectionism for U.S. food processors
102."
Canadian Renaissance
", May 5, 2002, on opportunities in Canadian resource stocks
103."
Is It Really This Bad?
" May 11, 2002, on the negative state of affairs in the market
104."
Sour Notes From The Heavy Metal Band,
" May 18, 2002, on negative price trends in base metals
105."
Stop Worrying About The Dollar
", May 22, 2002, on the relationship between the dollar and stocks
106."
Bonds And The Dollar: 32nd's Over Tokyo?
" June 2, 2002, on the relationship between bonds and the dollar
107."
Gold And The Dollar: A Real Relationship,
" June 9, 2002, on the relationship between gold and the dollar
108."
Bad Signs And Fragile Lines
", June 15, 2002, on the low probability of a psychological bottom
109."
Sugar: The Sweet Smell of Excess
", June 23, 2002, on the implications of low sugar prices
110."
Remembrance Of Beers Past
", June 29, 2002, on barley prices and brewery stocks
111."
By Bread Alone
", July 6, 2002, on wheat prices and farming stocks
112."
From Wall Street To Tractor Pulls,
" July 13, 2002, on farm supplier stocks
113."
Flight Or Fright: An Economic Reality Check,
" July 20, 2002 on macroeconomic impact of lower stock prices
114."
Thinking About Deflation
", July 26, 2002, on deflationary signals from the commodities markets
115."
Purchasing Managers And The Warning From Main Street,
" August 2, 2002, on the need for a rate cut
116."
Don't Sell Single Stock Futures Short,
" August 6, 2002, on stock loan procedures using single stock futures
117."
Not Your Father's Intermarket Analysis
", August 15, 2002, on changing relationships in financial markets
118."
Tax And The Single Stock Future,
" August 21, 2002, on the tax environment for single stock futures
119."
South Of The Border To Head South Soon
", August 30, 2002, on the prospects for Mexican equities
120."
There'll Be A Hot Time In The Old Town This Winter,
" September 5, 2002, on natural gas prices and equities
121."
Switzerland and Europe: Convergence With A Vengeance,
" September 13, 2002, on the Swiss market and franc
122."
Fannie Mae, But For What Duration?
" September 20, 2002, on Fannie Mae's exposures
123."
Silver Disappoints Again,
" September 27, 2002, on the prospects for silver equities
124."
Stocks In 1974 Or Japanese Bonds in 1996?
" October 6, 2002, on interest rate analogies in bonds
125."
The Dollar Didn't Matter,
" October 12, 2002, on the dollar's trading range
126."
What Ever Happened To The Trade Deficit?
" October 19, 2002, on the prospects for a net trade surplus
127."
The Durable Effects Of Durable Goods,
" October 26, 2002, on the importance of durable goods orders
128."
New Kid On The Block,
" November 2, 2002, on the introduction of futures on ETFs
129."
To Delete Is Sweet,
" November 9, 2002, on index deletion using single stock futures
130."
Time Of The Season,
" November 5, 2002, on seasonal trends in financial markets
131."
Alice In Russell Land,
" November 23, 2002, on the Russell 3000 style indices
132."
The Killer App For Single Stock Futures,
" November 30, 2002, on equity total return swaps
133."
All Sales Are Final
", December 1, 2002, on retail equities
134."
Zinc A Link For Traders Who Think,
" December 7, 2002, on the macroeconomic forecasting signals from metals
135."
Get Ready For A Recovery
", December 14, 2002, on bullish signals from the ocean freight market
136."
Still Crazy After All Three Years,
" December 18, 2002, on whether the Internet sector is still overvalued
137."
Energy Market Bubbles,
" January 4, 2003, on stability in the crude oil market
138."
Security Futures Tied To Dividend Whipping Post
", January 11, 2003, on the Bush dividend tax proposals
139."
Metals Spreads: Two Pairs To Bet On
", January 19, 2003, on gold/silver and platinum/palladium trades
140."
An Unruly MOB,
" January 25, 2003, on the negative MOB spread
141."
A Saving Grace,
" February 1, 2003, on savings rates as a function of market and policy variables
142."
A Refined View of Crude Oil,
" February 8, 2003, on improving refinery economics
143."
Northern Lights Shine On Canada
", February 15, 2003, on Canadian resource stocks
144."
A Rand(y) Walk Down Wall Street,
" February 23, 2003, on South African gold stocks
145."
The Which Blair Project,
" March 1, 2003, on the dismal outlook for British markets
146."
Mortgages In A 30-Year Fix,
" March 8, 2003, on declining prepayment risk for mortgages
147."
Nobody's Right If Everybody's Wrong,
" March 16, 2003, on sentiment indicators
148."
Worth The Paper It Is Printed On,
" March 22, 2003, on the use of paper as an economic indicator
149."
Lead Zeppelin Indicates Economy On Wrong Stairway
", March 29, 2003, on bearish signals from metals markets
150."
Thinking About Inflation,
" April 6, 2003, on indications for future inflation
151."
Leather and Shoes: You Can Run Because of Hide,
" April 12, 2003, on leather and shoe markets
152."
Real Risk In Real Estate,
" April 19, 2003, on negative prospects for REITs
153."
Fear And Regret Need Time To Forget,
" April 27, 2003, on a model for the VIX
154."
Mere Alcohol Doesn't Thrill Me At All
", May 4, 2003, on alcohol producers and subsidies
155."
Smart Markets, Foolish Choices,
" May 10, 2003, on the divergences between stocks and bonds
156."
Stocks And Treasuries: Is One Market Smarter?
" May 18, 2003, on another test between stocks and bonds
157."
Inflation, Deflation And Gold,
" May 25, 2003, on quantitative indicators of the gold market
158."
Some Tax Losses Are More Equal Than Others
,"
May 31, 2003, on changes in investor preferences for dividends
159."
The Other Natural Gas Market,
" June 7, 2003, on propane prices and their effects on petrochemicals stocks
160."
The Risks Of Fleeing To Safety
", June 15, 2003, on the risks of spreading against Treasuries
161."
Lumber Grows On Trees,
" June 21, 2003, on the relationship between lumber and housing
162."
Volatility And The Wild Of The Call,
" June 28, 2003, on the impact of currency volatility
163."
Service With A Smile,
" July 5, 2003, on the globalization of the service sector
164."
A Rooster Market In Chickens - For Now
", July 12, 2003, on price trends in the poultry markets
165."
These Aren't GDP Futures You're Trading,
" July 20, 2003, on the S&P 500 / GDP relationship
166."
Finding The Missing Link Between Stocks And GDP,
" July 27, 2003, also on the S&P 500 / GDP relationship
167."
Cold Turkey For Bonds,
" August 2, 2003, on bond market disruptions and implications for equities
168."
Higher Oil Prices Cannot Be Wished Away,
" August 10, 2003, on prospects for continued high oil prices
169."
We'll Leave The Light On For You,
" August 17, 2003, on electricity market re-regulation
170."
The VIX Encounters Murderers' Rho,
" August 24, 2003, on the effects of higher interest rates on the VIX
171."
A Day Without Sunshine,
" August 30, 2003, on weak FCOJ prices
172."
Financial Stocks Follow The Money
", September 6, 2003, on banking, insurance and brokerage stocks
173."
The Risks of Volatility Futures,
" September 14, 2003, on plans for futures on the VIX
174."
Gas Crisis Passing Quietly... For Now,
" September 20, 2003, on risks of higher natural gas prices
175."
The Thirty Years War
", September 28, 2003, on effects of oil and currency shocks
176."
Futures And Expectations,
" October 4, 2003, on plans for futures on the CPI
177."
The Future Of Inflation,
" October 11, 2003, on the utility of CPI futures as hedging instruments
178."
Tacking Into The Wind,
" October 19, 2003, on syndicated loan funds
179."
Resource Currencies: Gilt By Association?
", October 26, 2003, on the Canadian and Australian markets
180."
Where's The Beef?
" November 1, 2003, on prospects for higher cattle prices
181."
Does Money Matter?
" November 2, 2003, on money supply and financial markets
182."
The British Are Coming! Buy Them Now,
" November 9, 2003, on British interest rate hikes
183."
(Commercial) Paper Tigers,
" November 16, 2003, on money market clues to economic recovery
184."
Not All Fibers Carry Light,
" November 23, 2003, on cotton and wool prices
185."
Commodities' Economic Link Depends On Index Used,
" November 29, 2003, on the JOC-ECRI index
186."
Commodities And Financial Markets Mix. Sometimes
", December 7, 2003, on the effects of the JOC-ECRI index
187."
Gaining From Bond Coupons If Rates Rise,
" December 14, 2003, on synthetic puts on bond ETFs
188."
The Glorious Evils Of The Twin Deficits
", December 21, 2003, on the trade and budget deficits
189."
Until We Meat Again,
" December 25, 2003, on the implications of Mad Cow disease
190."
Should We Fear A Stronger Dollar?,
" January 3, 2004, on the consequences of a higher fed funds rates
191"
Stretching The Euro,
" January 11, 2004, on whether the euro is beyond fair value
192."
Trading Green Dollars For Black Gold
", January 17, 2004, on proposals to price oil outside of dollars
193."
Natural Gas Can Leave You Cold,
" January 25, 2004, on temperature-related trading in natural gas
194."
Gold Should Lose Its Midas Touch,
" January 31, 2004, on a turn lower in gold prices
195."
Japan Needs An Economic Dunkirk,
" February 8, 2004, on the need for Japan to allow a stronger yen
196."
Reactions To Sentiment In Need Of Attitude Adjustment
", February 15, 2004, on consumer sentiment surveys
197."
Emerging Warnings For Emerging Markets
", February 22, 2004, on emerging market equities
198."
Raising A Crop Of Misleading Signals
", February 29, 2004, on the grain inverse
199."
A Soft Sell On Hard Commodities
", March 7, 2004, on commodity-linked equities
200."
Non-Musical Notes Are Worth Listening To,
" March 14, 2004, on long-term interest rate trends
201."
Singing Election Year Muni Tunes,
" March 20, 2004, on prospects for narrowing municipal bond spreads
202."
Milking Profits From Dairy Sector,
" March 27, 2004 on dairy product volatility
203."
No Silver Lining In Silver Rally,
" April 3, 2004, on silver mining stocks
204."
Bonds Could Be Up The Ocean Without A Freighter,
" April 11, 2004, on de-leveraging signals from ocean freight
205."
Do Index ETFs Make It A Small World After All?
" April 18, 2004, on international trading patterns
206."
A Futures Contract We Can All Drink To
", April 25, 2004, on ethanol futures
207."
Soybeans And The Other Oil Market,
" May 2, 2004, on beanoil prices
208."
Commodities As An Asset Class
", May 9, 2004, on the managed futures industry
209."
Is The Euro Still Stretched?
" May 15, 2004, on renewed bullish prospects for the euro and gold
210."
Futures On Variance And Deviance,
" May 22, 2004, on variance futures.
211."
Energy Stocks Ignore Energy Prices,
" May 29, 2004, on the disconnection between stock prices and commodity prices
212."
Cattle Don't Get Mad, They Get Even,
" June 5, 2004, on the continued bull market in livestock
213."
Did Energy Prices Blindside Industrial Commodities?,
" June 12, 2004, on the downturn in industrial commodity prices
214."
Inflation's Corps Of Discovery,
" June 19, 2004, on the impact of food and energy prices on bonds
215."
Bonds Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow,
" June 26, 2004, on money market reactions to higher rates
216."
Credit Spreads Start Flashing Red,
" July 3, 2004, on negative implications of widening credit spreads
217."
Oil Market Fun With Fundamentals,
" July 10, 2004, on still-supportive crude oil fundamentals
218."
Reflation With A Twist,
" July 17, 2004, on the need for accommodative monetary policies
219."
Carry Outweighs Kerry,
" July 24, 2004, on negative prospects for financial issues
220."
Is Inflation Missing In Action?,
" July 31, 2004, on declining inflation measures
221."
Employment Data Turn First Fridays To Doomsdays,
" August 7, 2004, on employment surveys
222."
Natural Gas Is Behaving Itself For Now,
" August 15, 2004, on the outlook for natural gas
223."
A Crude Look At Factors And Sectors,
" August 21, 2004, on the sectoral impact of crude oil
224."
Mexican Stocks Should Get More Respect,
" August 29, 2004, on Mexican stocks and their oil linkage
225."
Market Forces Drive Political Horses,
" September 6, 2004, on market-driven political assessments
226."
Higher Tax Rates And Good News In The Same Sentence?,
" September 12, 2004, on implications of MUT spread history
227."
All Quiet On The Greenback Front,
" September 19, 2004, on impending dollar volatility
228."
An Extinction At The End Of The Curvaceous?,
" September 26, 2004, on the flattening yield curve
229."
Election Impacts Are Debatable,
" October 3, 2004, on markets discounting election results
230."
Will Gold Get Bold?,
" October 9, 2004, on the dollar indications for gold
231."
Aluminum Foils Nothing,
" October 16, 2004, on aluminum's implications for the economy and Alcoa
232."
Can Japanese Rates Happen Here?,
" October 24, 2004, on declining long-term yields
233."
These Still Are Not GDP Futures You Are Trading,
" October 31, 2004, on the predictive capacity of note yields
234."
If You Build It, Will Bonds Fall?,
" November 7, 2004, on the macroeconomic role of construction
235."
Keep The Fed Away From The Dollar,
" November 14, 2004, on why the Fed should not target the dollar
236."
A Bond Loss Named Desire,
" November 21, 2004, on bond market hedging
237."
Stocks Won't Get Bucked By Dollar,
" November 27, 2004, on currency-equity relationships
238."
Canadian Markets To Stop Moving North,
" December 4, 2004, on an impending end to the Canadian market rally
239."
Commodity Investing: No Against 'Em At The Forum,
" December 12, 2004, on commodity investing considerations
240."
Can Derivatives Cure Drug Stocks?,
" December 19, 2004, on a proposal to securitize drug development pipelines
241."
Are Champagne Stocks In A Bubble? ,
" December 26, 2004, on the strong performance of champagne makers
242."
No Commodity Darkness At The Edge Of Town ,
" January 1, 2005, on effects of industrial commodity prices and freight rates
243."
Poor Howard's Almanac ,
" January 9, 2005, on the January Effect
244."
Do Stocks Care About Current (Account) Events? ,
" January 15, 2005, on the relationship between stocks and the trade deficit
245."
Unreal Aspects Of Real Estate ,
" January 22, 2005, on the relationship between real estate and interest rates
246."
REITs Living On Borrowed Time ,
" January 29, 2005, on REITs exposure to interest rates
247."
Translating Foreign Revenue Into Stock-Speak ,
" February 5, 2005, on group performance impact of the euro
248."
Flat Yield Curve Is Not Flat Earth ,
" February 13, 2005, on volatility and the flattening yield curve
249."
Of Trends And Friends ,
" February 19, 2005, on different trend distributions for stocks and commodities
250."
Copper Seizes Brass Ring,
" February 27, 2005, on the relative contributions of crude oil and copper
251."
Preparing For Energy-Driven Inflation
,
" March 5, 2005, on groups affected by higher expected inflation
252."
Oil Industry: Won't Get Fooled Again ,
" March 12, 2005, on the oil industry's investment conundrum
253."
Derricks Don't Grow To The Sky,"
March 20, 2005, on the implications of the forward curve for oil stocks
254."
Silver Hopes Spring Eternal,"
March 26, 2005, on a constrained outlook for silver and silver equities
255."
Russell Spread A Sector Bet,"
April 2, 2005, on the Russell 1000 - 2000 spread
256."
The Atlantic Is A Spreading Opportunity,"
April 9, 2005, on the Russell 1000 - STOXX 50 spread
257."
The Bad News Bonds,"
April 16, 2005, on the implications of rising credit default risks
258."
It Takes Crude To Contango,"
April 23, 2005, on the developments in crude oil's forward curve
259."
Yuan Flew Over The Euro's Nest
,"
April 30, 2005, on stock market implications of a stronger yuan
260."
Who Are The Next Auto Wrecks?,"
May 7, 2005, on sector-specific credit default risks
261."
Living In A Material World,"
May 15, 2005, on the connection between metals prices and material stock CDS costs
262."
Flatten Down The Hatches,"
May 20, 2005, on the market impact of the flattening yield curve
263."
Lies, Damned Lies And Wall Street,"
May 28, 2005, on commodity-linked portfolio strategies
264."
Does Zinc Link Still Work?,"
June 4, 2005, on the decoupling of bond yields from the economic indicators
265."
The Monetary Banana Peel,"
June 12, 2005, on the impact of currency blocs on interest rates
266."
Gold, Euros And Mattresses,"
June 19, 2005, on the upward divergence of gold prices
267."
Do Not Dismiss Durable Goods,"
June 25, 2005, on the long-term importance of durable goods
268."
Are Utilities Blowing Bubbles?"
July 3, 2005, on off-kilter relationships in the utility sector
269."
Three Cheers For Volatility"
July 10, 2005, on the industry group impact of volatility
270."
Will Inflation Sprout On The Farm?"
July 16, 2005, on the grain price rally
271."
There's Bond Volatility, Too"
July 23, 2005, on the low level of bond volatility
272."
Factors Matter, Size Doesn't"
July 30, 2005, on drivers of differential index performance
273."
Financial Gravity And Homebuilders"
August 6, 2005, on factors affecting homebuilding stocks
274."
Feeling Heat From Natural Gas"
August 13, 2005, on rising natural gas prices
275."
Canada Is A Country, Not A Sector"
August 20, 2005, on the strength of the Canadian markets
276."
Keep Your Eye On Corporate Bonds"
August 28, 2005, on re-emerging stress in credit default swap markets
277."
Will Katrina Swamp Fed's Plans?"
September 4, 2005, on energy-related consequences for monetary policy
278."
Inflation Is Grey, Not Black Or White"
September 10, 2005, on implications of rising inflation expectations
279."
Gold And Crude Oil Are Unrelated"
September 17, 2005, on the common misperception of correlation
280."
Markets, Money And Inflation"
September 24, 2005, on money creation and its effects
281."
Employment Errors And Unearned Runs"
October 1, 2005, on the impact of noise in the employment data
282."
Central Bank Confusion And Coordination"
October 9, 2005, on coordinated global interest rate increases
283."
Stocks Will Say, 'Give Me Credit'"
October 16, 2005, on inflation and corporate bond spreads
284."
Commodities And Inflation"
October 21, 2005, on commodities as a poor measure of inflation
285."
Long Live The King?"
October 29, 2005, on the change in Federal Reserve leadership
286."
Dollar Bears Mercifully Silent"
November 5, 2005, on industry group impact of a stronger dollar
287."
More Crude Oil Fun With Fundamentals"
November 12, 2005, on the short-term outlook for crude oil prices
288."
Financial Gravity And The Flattening Yield Curve"
November 20, 2005, on the impact of the flattening yield curve
289."
Mexican Stock Beauties Still Real Cuties"
November 26, 2005, on the still-good outlook for Mexican stocks
290."
Who Is Squeezed By Yield Curve?"
December 3, 2005, on financing impact of flatter yield curve
291."
Flame On, Natural Gas"
December 10, 2005, on the outlook for natural gas
292."
Of Gold Bugs And Lead-Heads"
December 18, 2005, on the rapid but unremarked rise in base metal prices
293."
Uranium A Hot Topic"
December 25, 2005, on the bull market in uranium prices
294."
Don't Fear Inversion"
December 31, 2005, on the bond market effects of inversion
295."
Energy Deck Shuffled"
January 8, 2006, on the relationship between crude oil and natural gas
296."
Option Strike Selection"
January 14, 2006, on selecting a call option strike
297."
CSI Wall Street: Yield Curve Victims"
January 21, 2006, on financial group impact of flatter yield curve
298."
Will Reality Bite Commodity Stocks?"
January 27, 2006, on the changing nature of commodity-linked equities
299."
Candy Makes Cupid Stupid"
February 4, 2006, on cocoa, sugar and confectioners
300."
The St. Valentine's Day Emergence"
February 11, 2006, on the outlook for emerging markets
301."
Today Europe, Tomorrow The World"
February 19, 2006, on the euro index
302."
Good News From Corporate Curves"
February 24, 2006, on positively sloped corporate yield curves
303."
Stocks, Bonds And Auto Parts"
March 4, 2006, on perverse incentives in the corporate bond market
304."
Crude Oil Inventories: Stop Counting!"
March 10, 2006, on misleading signals from the contango in crude oil
305."
Commodities And Interest Rates"
March 15, 2006, on the relationship between commodities and interest rates
306."
Biofuels Won't Give No Satisfaction"
March 25, 2006, on the economics of ethanol and biodiesel
307."
The Yen Carry Disaster That Wasn't"
April 2, 2006, on the yen carry trade and the yen-yuan cross-rate
308."
Look Both Ways When Crossing Bond Street"
April 8, 2006, on the implications of a bearish steepening of the yield curve
309."
Oil ETF's Got A Gusher Of Problems"
April 11, 2006, on the introduction of a crude oil ETF
310."
Behind TIPS' Troubles"
April 14, 2006, on the problems and prospects for TIPS
311."
Party Like It's 1987"
April 23, 2006, on parallels between 1987 and 2006
312."
A Different Dollar Decline"
April 29, 2006, on the contra-fundamental weakness in the dollar
313."
Too Much Transparency Not A Good Thing"
May 6, 2006, on the communications policies of the Federal Reserve
314."
Metals Bubble A Lead Balloon"
May 13, 2006, on the speculative surge in base metals
315."
The Moral Equivalent Of Rent"
May 20, 2006, on housing market shifts and their implications for the CPI
316."
No Easy Answers In Natural Gas"
May 27, 2006, on whether chemical companies are affected by natural gas prices
317."
Convertible Convergences, Return Divergences"
June 3, 2006, on return indications from high-yield convertible bonds
318."
Hard To Be Right On VIX"
June 10, 2006, on trading the VIX futures and options
319."
All Stressed Out From What?"
June 18, 2006, on sector CDS costs
320."
Canada's Resource Trap Closing"
June 25, 2006, on the vulnerabilities of the Canadian stock market
321."
Central Banks' Tokyo Connection"
June 30, 2006, on the management of bank reserves in Japan
322."
Indices With A Weight Problem"
July 8, 2006, on the opportunities created by different weighting schemes
323."
Days Of Housing Futures Past"
July 15, 2006, on problems associated with housing futures
324."
One Yuan Yawn"
July 22, 2006, on the anniversary of the Chinese yuan revaluation
325."
No Late-Inning Monetary Heroics"
July 29, 2006, on the end of the rate-hike cycle
326."
Euro Rates; No Worries, Mates"
August 5, 2006, on the recent European rate hikes
327."
Are We Really Uncomfortable With Inflation?"
August 12, 2006, on the acceptance of greater inflation risk
328."
Homebuilders' Little Pink Houses"
August 16, 2006, on the poor economics of the homebuilding industry
329."
Inflation Illusions"
August 17, 2006, on divergences within CPI sub-indices
330."
Time To Worry About Sentiment?"
August 27, 2006, on declining levels of consumer sentiment
331."
Take A Deep Breath For Mexico"
September 8, 2006, on a negative outlook for Mexican markets
332."
Winners And Losers In Commodity Decline"
September 16, 2006, on the sector-specific impact of lower energy prices
333."
Monetary Policy And Housing"
September 21, 2006, on the impact of monetary policy on residential investment
334."
All Quiet On Euro Front"
September 20, 2006, on relative monetary policies between the U.S. and the Eurozone
335."
Housing, Monetary Policy And The Current Account"
October 3, 2006, on the links between interest rates, trade and housing
336."
Commodities After The Fall"
October 13, 2006, on the financial market impact of lower commodity prices
337."
When Will The Yen Bottom?"
October 20, 2006, on emerging support for the yen
338."
Crude Oil Outlook Unsettled"
October 27, 2006, on conflicting forces in the crude oil market
339."
Gambling On Economic Data"
November 3, 2006, on economic derivatives auctions
340."
A Penny For Copper's Thoughts"
November 11, 2006, on the use of copper as an economic indicator
341."
Juice Market Getting Squeezed"
November 15, 2006, on factors affecting the orange juice market
342."
Commodities And Equities: Think Before You Link"
November 22, 2006, on efficiency of stocks in capturing commodity prices
343."
Won't Get Bucked Again"
December 1, 2006, on the dollar's impact upon stock and bond prices
344."
Macro Indicators Point To Lower Inflation"
December 9, 2006, on the impact of deficit, money and credit variables
345."
Yes, Virginia, There Is TIPS Protection"
December 16, 2006, on arbitraged returns in the TIPS market
346."
Credit Ratings Are Size-Dependent"
December 23, 2006, on credit ratings as a function of size and economic sector
347."
The Yen Carry Still Matters"
December 30, 2006, on emerging market dependence on cheap yen
348."
Commodities' Unhappy New Year"
January 6, 2007, on commodities and emerging markets
349."
Muni Bonds' Electile Dysfunctions"
January 13, 2007, on deteriorating prospects for municipal bonds
350."
Ethanol Must Be Destroyed"
January 19, 2007, on the ongoing ethanol boondoggle
351."
Seeing Housing's Forest Through Trees"
January 27, 2007, on using lumber's forward curve as a predictor for housing
352."
How Cold Is It?"
February 3, 2007, on temperature-related changes in the heating oil market
353."
Covering The Cost of Capital"
February 11, 2007, on the spread between return on investment and cost of capital
354."
REITs March To Different Drummer,"
February 16, 2007, on the continued bull market in REITs
355."
Stocks Have No Cross Of Gold,"
February 23, 2007, on the non-relationship between stocks and gold
356."
Putting Volatility Into Perspective,"
March 3, 2007, on the VIX and BXM patterns
357."
A Spring Fling For Crude Oil?"
March 11, 2007, on an upward bias in the crude oil market
358."
No Good News From Corporate Curves,"
March 17, 2007, on the deteriorating corporate bond picture
359."
Steeper My Curve To Thee,"
March 24, 2007, on consequences of a steeper yield curve
360."
Protectionism And The Yuan,"
March 31, 2007, on the risks of demanding a stronger yuan
361."
Bonds Turning Bearish,"
April 6, 2007, on the prospects for higher long-term rates
362."
Utilities As Cyclical Stocks,"
April 14, 2007, on the economic sensitivity of utility stocks
363."
Productivity Is Overrated,"
April 22, 2007, on interpretation and use of productivity data
364."
Volatility Tail, Market Dog,"
April 28, 2007, on developments in volatility trading
365."
Equity Shrink's Hidden Importance,"
May 5, 2007, on the implications of privatization
366."
Blame Crude Oil Carefully,"
May 12, 2007, on distortions in the crude oil market and links to consumer spending
367."
Gasoline Will Not Kill Us All,"
May 19, 2007, on the minor impact of higher gasoline prices
368."
Will The Yen Hold Its Low?"
May 25, 2007, on emerging interest rate support for the yen
369."
Will Bonds Threaten Stocks?"
June 2, 2007, on the valuation threat posed by higher long-term interest rates
370."
Currencies And Stocks In Detail"
June 2, 2007, on the disaggregated impact of currencies on equities
371."
Is China Slowing?"
June 15, 2007, on the indications of slower growth in China
372."
Food Price Herd On The Street,"
June 23, 2007, on rising food price inflation
373."
Natural Gas Always Dangerous To Someone,"
June 29, 2007, on the current state of the natural gas market
374."
The 2007 Sizzling Succotash Market,"
July 4, 2007, on the soybean/corn spread
375."
Of Commodities And Currencies,"
July 12, 2007, on the poor statistical relationships between the two markets
376."
Do Employment Reports Matter?,"
July 19, 2007, on the relationship between employment and inflation
377."
Convertibles, Volatility And Turning Points,"
July 28, 2007, on the role of volatility in ending a market downturn
378."
Two Cheers For Corporate Bonds,"
August 2, 2007, on a prospective narrowing of investment-grade credit spreads
379."
What's Up With Canada?,"
August 10, 2007, on the volatility in the Canadian market
380."
The Bank of Japan's Error,"
August 17, 2007, on credit tightening in Japan
381."
The Great Commercial Paper Lockdown Of 2007,"
August 24, 2007, on turmoil in the commercial paper market
382."
Mutual Fund Investors And The Dollar,"
August 30, 2007, on trends in domestic and international mutual fund flows
383."
Transparency Is Gone With The Wind,"
September 7, 2007, on the Federal Reserve's loss of control
384."
The Orwellian World Of TIPS,"
September 14, 2007, on the low level of inflation expectations
385."
Liquidity And The Return Of The Yen Carry Trade,"
September 21, 2007, on the implications of low inflation in Japan
386."
Refiners Getting Squeezed,"
September 30, 2007, on narrowing refining margins
387."
Divining The FOMC's Intentions,"
October 6, 2007, on comparative methods of tracking FOMC rate-setting intentions
388."
Bonds Are Turning Bearish Again,"
October 13, 2007, on a bearish bond market outlook
389."
Chinese Lead And Your Portfolio,"
October 19, 2007, on a tongue-in-cheek look at lead and the toy industry
390."
Australia's Thunder From Down Under,"
October 27, 2007, on the outlook for the Australian dollar and equities
391."
Are Base Metals Topping?,"
November 3, 2007, on a negative outlook for mining shares
392."
A Trans-Pacific Drubbing,"
November 10, 2007, on the consequences of a stronger yen
393."
America's Casey At The Bat,"
November 16, 2007, on the relatively low poor post-2001 performance of U.S. equities
394."
Markets Not As Complacent As They Look,"
November 22, 2007, on whether U.S. stock traders are too compacent
395."
More Headwind For Corporate Bonds,"
November 30, 2007, on the impact of rising swap spreads and fixed-income volatility
396."
What Really Moves Energy Stocks?,"
December 7, 2007, on a factor analysis of energy groups and commodities
397."
The Internet Years Of Our Lives,"
December 9, 2007, a historic-context view on whether Google can sustain its growth
398."
Stocks' Relative Value Conundrum,"
December 20, 2007, on the disconnection between stock and bond prices
399."
New Year, New Zealand"
December 26, 2007, on the outlook for New Zealand markets
400."
Fear Of Fed Cuts,"
January 4, 2008, on whether anticipation of rate cuts is hurting stocks
401."
Real Men Don't Crush Beans"
January 11, 2008, on the new crop soybean crush
402."
We Are Japan Now"
January 18, 2008, on the parallels to Japan's longstanding bear market
403."
A-Freight Of The Yuan"
January 26, 2008, on the implications of the yuan rising in a weaker economy
404."
Why Put-Write Is Right"
February 1, 2008, on the reasons why the put-write index works
405."
What Affects TIPS?
"
February 9, 2008, on the factors affecting inflation expectations
406."
Natural Gas Heats Up Inflation"
February 15, 2008, on rising home heating prices
407."
Switzerland's Commodity Connection"
February 21, 2008, on the link between commodity exporters' funds and Swiss markets
408."
Commodities' Merry Poppings"
March 1, 2008, on how various market factors have been linked to individual commodity prices
409."
Not By Money Alone"
March 9, 2008, on the outlook for money supply growth and its effects
410."
A Threat From Savings?"
March 14, 2008, on a savings response to declining asset prices
411."
Water, The Other Liquid Market"
March 22, 2008, on water and environmental investing
412."
Not Buying Purchasing Manufacturers"
March 30, 2008, on the impact of ISM indices
413."
REITs Under The Radar"
April 5, 2008, on the revival of REITs
414."
Coal's Good Day At Black Rock"
April 12, 2008, on changes in the coal mining industry
415."
Transports Fuel On The Bill"
April 19, 2008, on the impact of rising fuel prices on transportation stocks
416."
Financial Stocks And The Cost Of Capital"
April 25, 2008, on the paradox of the firms at the heart of the credit crunch's low capital cost
417."
Lunch At The New Delhi"
May 3, 2008, on the outlook for Indian stocks
418."
Speculators And Their Commitments"
May 10, 2008, on the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report
419."
Realized Borrowing Costs Matter"
May 16, 2008, on the importance of absolute corporate borrowing costs
420."
Crude Oil And Speculation"
May 25, 2008, on the role of long-only index funds in commodities
421."
Who's Afraid Of 4%?"
May 31, 2008, on the changed relationship between stocks and bonds
422."
Interbank Market Remains In Crisis"
June 8, 2008, on trends in the overnight index swap market
423."
Bye-Bye Miss Eurozone Pie"
June 12, 2008, on an impending top in the euro
424."
Will Brazil Thrill Still?"
June 19, 2008, on the valuation of the Brazilian market
425."
The Sin Of Wages"
June 26, 2008, on the inability of incomes to rise with inflation
426."
Gold Losing Its Constancy"
July 3, 2008, on gold's changing relationships with currencies and interest rates
427."
Trendiness In Currencies"
July 11, 2008, on which currencies trend the most
428."
Use Futures To Short"
July 18, 2008, on the use of single stock futures for selling short
429."
Refiners Still Getting Squeezed"
July 28, 2008, on the pressures faced by refiners
430."
Using SSFs To Hedge Sector Dividend Risk"
August 2, 2008, on the use of single stock futures for hedging sector dividends
431."
Will Crude Oil Grease The Market?"
August 8, 2008, on whether lower crude oil prices alone can induce a rally
432."
Gold Failed"
August 16, 2008, on gold's changing role as an investment
433."
Size Doesn't Matter In Index Spreads"
August 22, 2008, on the Russell 1000-Russell 2000 spread
434."
Hedging Fannie Mae's Dividend Risk"
August 28, 2008, on a dividend arbitrage using single stock futures
435."
Fannie, Freddie, Hank And Currencies"
September 6, 2008, on apparent changes in currency policy related to the mortgagee bailout
436."
Full Faith And Credit"
September 14, 2008, on the paradoxes associated with rising sovereign credit risk
437."
More Bad News For Corporate Bonds"
September 20, 2008, on rising corporate credit spreads and negative correlation to Treasuries
438."
Slow Motion Across The Ocean"
September 28, 2008, on the deflationary implications of declining freight rates
439."
Miners Stop Getting The Lead Out"
October 3, 2008, on a continued negative outlook for mining issues
440."
The VIX Will Not Call The Bottom"
October 11, 2008, on the procyclical effects of volatility and variance trading
441."
Volatility And Capitulation"
October 17, 2008, on the role of excess volatility and flattened skews in defining a bottom
442."
A Depressing Analog"
October 25, 2008, on the comparisons to The Great Depression
443."
Futures Simplify Securities Lending"
October 31, 2008, on using single stock futures to avoid disruptions in the securities lending market
444."
Risk-Free In Name Only"
November 7, 2008, on rising global sovereign credit risk
445."
No Valor In Consumer Discretion"
November 14, 2008, on the impact of declining consumer discretionary spending
446."
Convertibles For The Adventurous"
November 23, 2008, on prospects for high-yield convertibles
447."
Putting The Euro-Yen Cross-Rate To Work"
November 29, 2008, on the cross-rate between the euro and the yen
448."
The Yuan After The Fall"
December 5, 2008, on issues surrounding the yuan
449."
Russia Shoots A BRIC"
December 13, 2008, on the outlook for Russian equities
450."
Silver Will Sleep Again"
December 14, 2008, on the outlook for silver and silver miners
451."
Thoughts On Credit Default Swap Clearing"
December 27, 2008, on clearing issues for CDS
452."
A Matter Of Small Interest"
January 1, 2009, on an option-based short position in Eurodollar futures
453."
Gold's Tale Of Two Cities"
January 11, 2009, on the underperformance of gold mining stocks
454."
Kiss The Dollar Carry Trade Good-Bye"
January 18, 2009, on the collapse of global carry trade spreads
455."
Recovery Signals In Eurodollars"
January 25, 2009, on TED spreads and the forward rate structure of Eurodollars
456."
Corporate Bonds And Prospective Stock Returns"
February 1, 2009, on why corporate bonds should continue to outperform stocks
457."
Optionality In The DJIA-SPX Spread"
February 7, 2009, on a relative volatility convergence trade between the two indices
458."
Broken Tail For Crude Oil Dog"
February 13, 2009, on the declining utility of NYMEX crude oil futures
459."
Eastern Europe's Swiss Miss"
February 22, 2009, on the collapse of Eastern European currencies versus the Swiss franc
460."
Stocks Are Overvalued Still"
February 28, 2009, on the relative overvaluation of equities with respect to bonds
461."
It Is No Better Elsewhere"
March 6, 2009, on the relative performances of the U.S. and the rest of the world
462."
Utilities In The Cap And Trade Era"
March 22, 2009, on rising capital costs for utilities produced by regulatory uncertainty
463."
Living In A Material World"
April 4, 2009, on prospects for natural resources stocks
464."
Capitalism Requires Capital"
April 17, 2009, on the implications of residential fixed investment
465."
Capital Structure Lines Blurring"
May 1, 2009, on changes in the stock-corporate bond relationship
466."
Early Assessment Of Quantitative Easing"
May 15, 2009, on the relative performance of stock markets where central banks have engaged in QE
467."
Corporate Bond ETFs And Self-Fulfilling Prophecies"
May 28, 2009, on whether the LQD and HYG have affected their underlying indices
468."
Food Prices Eat Packager Profits"
June 13, 2009, on the underperformance of food packager stocks
469."
Integrated Oils' Response To Crude Oil Prices"
June 29, 2009, on whether the group is a proxy for crude oil prices
470."
Inflation Lessons From Japan"
July 11, 2009, on whether inflation is being measured properly
471."
The Yuan Re-Pegging One Year Later"
July 18, 2009, on the consequences of the de facto yuan peg
472."
Coiling The Eurodollar Spring"
July 24, 2009, on instabilities in the short-term interest rate markets
473."
Stocks' Relative Valuation Attractive"
August 1, 2009, on the valuation of stocks relative to corporate bonds
474."
Sovereign CDS Costs Declining"
August 8, 2009, on the impact and limitations of declining sovereign CDS costs
475."
Sugar Surge No Taste Of Honey"
August 15, 2009, on the impact of rising sugar prices
476."
Seen And Unseen In Natural Gas"
August 22, 2009, on the implications of the deep natural gas contango
477."
Aluminum Miners Mirroring Prices"
August 29, 2009, on the links between aluminum prices, global growth and mining equities
478."
How Long Can Low Rates Last?"
September 6, 2009, on forced stability created by monetary policies
479."
U.S. May Surpass Japanese Money Machine"
September 12, 2009, on the prospective impact of low short-term interest rates
480."
Whatever Happened To The Euro/Yen Cross-Rate?"
September 19, 2009, on the effect of low U.S. interest rates on this currency indicator
481."
English Channel Energy Into Lower Rates"
September 26, 2009, on the British drive to weaken the pound
482."
Be Careful About Trading Stocks Off Of Currencies"
October 3, 2009, on the differential impact of currencies on equity indices
483."
Europe Bracing For Higher Rates"
October 10, 2009, on signals from European swap and volatility markets
484."
The Yuan Carry Trade Is Here"
October 17, 2009, on the yuan's implied role as a carry trade funding currency
485."
When Perfect Isn't Good Enough"
October 24, 2009, on whether stock prices could improve with perfect earnings forecasts
486."
Are The Miners Hitting Resistance?"
October 31, 2009, on a top in mining stocks
487."
Japan At The End Of The Line"
November 6, 2009, on the long-term consequences of excess stimulus
488."
Refiners May Be In For A Ride"
November 12, 2009, on the poor outlook for refining stocks
489."
Getting Teased By Lumber"
November 18, 2009, on the implications of a small rebound in lumber prices
490."
Platinum During The Gold Rush"
November 27, 2009, on the platinum-gold spread and platinum miners
491."
Coal Has A Strong Steel Linkage"
December 6, 2009, on incremental value of metallurgical coal to producers
492."
The Euro And Asymmetric Risk"
December 12, 2009, on imbalanced downside risks to the euro
493."
Be Wary Of Fading Carry"
December 18, 2009, on the risks to emerging markets from declining carry
494."
An O-Shaped Recession For U"
December 27, 2009, a satirical look at market analysis
495."
No Second Thoughts In Eurodollars"
January 1, 2010, on the implications of the forward rate structure
496."
Real Interest Rate Paradoxes"
January 9, 2010, on the links between real interest rates and financial markets
497."
Is The Yuan Peg Supporting U.S. Treasuries?"
January 15, 2010, on apparent Chinese support of the dollar to maintain the peg
498."
Crude oil Price Decline To Have Small Impact On U.S. Equities"
July 13, 2014, on the industry group impact of crude oil prices
499."
Market Environment For Euro"
July 19, 2014, on quantitative indicators for the euro
500."
Higher Russian Interest Rates Are Bad For Russian Stocks"
July 25, 2014, on the futility of higher short-term interest rates for Russia
501."
Will The Yield Curve Keep Flattening At The Long End?"
August 1, 2014, on the outlook for a continued flattening of the Treasury yield curve's long end
502."
Gold, The Twist And The Taper"
August 8, 2014, on gold and fixed-income markets
503."
Gold Miners Retain Embedded Call Option On Gold"
August 16, 2014, on gold miners' relative performance as a function of gold prices
504."
Corporate Bond Interest Rate And Credit Risk"
August 26, 2014, on two measures of corporate bond risk
505."
Another Glance At The Baltic Dry Freight Index"
September 8, 2014, on the continued lapse in the shipping measure's utility
506."
Yield Curve Flattening Trades Could Support Long-Term Bonds"
September 14, 2014, on the outlook for duration-neutral bullish flatteners
507."
Commodity Indices' Long-Term Underperformance Continues"
September 28, 2014, on the inability of commodity indices to protect against inflation and currency debasement
508."
Bonds Of The Baskervilles"
October 5, 2014, on the refusal of long-term Treasuries to respond negatively to strong economic data
509."
Monetary Expectations, Grains And Energy"
October 13, 2014, on whether the dual commodity downturns were attributable to monetary policy expectations
510."
You Can Never Stop The QE Music"
October 19, 2014, on the need for QE to be consistent and expected to continue
511."
Japanese Bonds And The Ghost Of QE Future"
October 25, 2014, on the collapse of net carry returns for government bonds after years of monetary ease
512."
Stocks Expanding Dominance Over Higher-Risk Bonds"
November 2, 2014, on constraints facing convertible and high-yield bonds
513."
The Wealth Effect Is Returning"
November 10, 2014, on the increase in personal outlays as a function of rising asset values
514."
Japanese Inflation On The Rise"
November 17, 2014, on negative effects of excess monetary creation for Japanese consumers
515."
Negative Message From Implied Correlation"
November 23, 2014, on the relationship between implied correlation and equity returns
516."
Commodity-Linked Equities' Reaction To Monetary Stimulus"
November 30, 2014, on why commodity-linked equities have underperformed
517."
Rising Energy Sector Credit Risk Is Real"
December 8, 2014, on the CDS levels of energy sector bonds
518."
Corporate Bonds Net Yet Bearish For Large Capitalization Stocks"
December 15, 2014, on yield curve spreads
519."
Unexpectedly Low Rates Can Return"
December 22, 2014, on the steepening of the short-term swap curve
520."
Apparently There Are No Old, Bold Traders"
December 29, 2014, on differences in consumer confidence across age cohorts
521."
Score One For The Economists"
January 4, 2015, on TIPS' implied forecasts versus economists'
522."
Bunds And Treasuries Pause On Race To Zero"
January 12, 2015, on prospective relative returns between U.S. and German bonds
523."
Two Presidential Administrations After Six Years"
January 19, 2015, on comparative capital market returns in the Bush and Obama administrations
524."
Getting Ready For The Euro Carry Trade"
January 26, 2015, on the global implications of Eurozone QE
525."
Different Commodities, Different Currencies"
January 30, 2015, on on individual commodity/currency relationships
526."
Global REITs And The Search For Yield"
February 8, 2015, on the flight into long-duration real estate assets
527."
Closing Out The Nikkei/NASDAQ Analog"
February 15, 2015, on the impending approach of the NASDAQ to its 2000 high
528."
Gold And Negative Interest Rates"
February 21, 2015, on negative interest rates' support for gold
529."
Israeli Shekel Sensitive To Relative Interest Rate Expectations"
March 2, 2015, on the Israeli shekel
530."
For Whom The Bond Bell Tolls"
March 8, 2015, on the implications of large changes in thirty-year bond yields
531."
The Euro Carry Is A Bond Affair"
March 15, 2015, on European investors preference for external debt over equity
532."
EMU Relative Performance Currency-Driven"
March 22, 2015, on how EMU performance benefited from a weaker euro
533."
Lumber Points To Slow Home Construction"
March 29, 2015, on the forward curve of lumber futures and rising multi-family construction
534."
Non-Commercial Positions And Commodity Index Levels"
April 5, 2015, on whether trader positions lead physical commodity prices
535."
The Dollar And Non-Petroleum Import Prices"
April 14, 2015, on the trade-weighted dollar and non-petroleum import prices
536."
Colombia Illustrates Emerging Market Hazards"
April 20, 2015, on Colombia's exposure to crude oil prices and its weak peso policy
537."
Commercial Lending And Inflation"
April 27, 2015, on how a rise in lending has yet to expand the money supply
538."
TIPS Breakevens Do Not Track Energy Prices"
May 5, 2015, on the poor correlation between breakevens and wholesale energy markets
539."
Bund Futures' Volatility And Returns"
May 12, 2015, on the jump in Bund volatility
540."
Productivity Of Electricity Usage Continues To Rise"
May 19, 2015, on the increasing efficiency of electricity usage
541."
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Misleading"
May 26, 2015, on the ECRI index' utility as a leading economic indicator
542."
Agricultural Commodities And Food Prices"
June 1, 2015, on the tame outlook for relative food price inflation
543."
Real Rates And Inflation Expectations Misaligned In Time"
June 8, 2015, on the effects of TIPS' relative illiquidity on inflation breakevens
544."
Fun Fact About Gold And Stocks"
June 16, 2015, on the relative long-term returns between gold and U.S. equities
545."
The VSTOXX Kept Its Virtue"
June 23, 2015, on Eurozone equity volatility after a large rally
546."
Swiss Short-Term Rates In Negative Trap"
June 30, 2015, on pressures for increasingly negative Swiss interest rates
547."
The Yen Takes On A Haven Role"
July 7, 2015, on flights into the yen during equity selloffs
548."
Relative Healthcare Risk Greater For Sector's Bonds"
July 13, 2015, on healthcare credit spreads expressing greater caution than equities
549."
Energy Upstream Up Creek"
July 21, 2015, on the poor prospects for the energy upstream sector
550."
Chile Goes Backwards"
July 28, 2015, on Chilean markets' increased dependence on copper prices
551."
Gasoline Largely Irrelevant For Equities"
August 4, 2015, on the weak linkages between gasoline and equity returns
552."
Capital Costs And Returns"
August 11, 2015, on the impact of weighted-average costs of capital
553."
Gold And Trading Activity Measures"
August 18, 2015, on whether trading activity has been driving gold lower
554."
Monetary Policy And Inflation"
August 25, 2015, on weak linkages between monetary measures and inflation
555."
The Wealth Effect Will Matter"
September 1, 2015, on the macro risk of declining equity markets
556."
Closing The Book On ZIRP"
September 8, 2015, on a comparison of U.S. and Japanese markets after ZIRP
557. "
China Not Dumping Two-Year Treasuries
," September 15, 2015, on the two-year swap spread
558. "
Risk-Aversion Continues For Convertible Bonds
," September 22, 2015, on the poor relative performance of high-yield convertibles
559. "
Relative Financial Stock Performance On Autopilot
," September 29, 2015, on flat financial stock relative performance
560. "
Normalized Employment And Inflation
," October 6, 2015, on the inverse relationship between employment growth and consumer prices
561. "
Different Dollar Indices Produce Different Results
," October 13, 2015, on the non-uniform paths of various dollar indices
562. "
Homebuilder Sentiment Increase Nice But Meaningless
," October 20, 2015, on the NAHB market sentiment index
563. "
Trying To Relaunch The Euro Carry Trade
," October 27, 2015, on the global impact of expanded Eurozone QE
564. "
Changing Trade Weights For The U.S. Dollar
," November 2, 2015, on Federal Reserve trade weights
565. "
The Dollar And Risky Bonds,
" November 10, 2015, on tighter monetary policy's effect on prospective risky bond returns
566. "
Gasoline Prices And Consumer Discretionary Returns
," November 17, 2015, on gasoline and consumer discretionary stocks
567. "
Euro Inflation Swaps Maturity-Dependent
," November 24, 2015, on the ECB's inability to increase inflation expectations
568. "
Take Commitment Of Traders Data Lightly
," December 1, 2015, on lead/lag relationships between prices and positions
569. "
Bunds Really Are Return-Free Risk
," December 8, 2015, on Bunds' distribution of returns
570. "
Energy Sector Yield Curve Spreads
," December 15, 2015, on rising credit stress in the energy sector
571. "
The Conditions Wherein Size Matters
," December 22, 2015, on the Russell 1000/2000 spread
572. "
Financial Stocks Riding Financial Yield Curve Spreads
," December 29, 2015, on financial yield curve spreads
573. "
The Economists Win Another Round
," January 5, 2016, on comparative inflation forecasts
574. "
The Last State Of The Union Comparison
," January 12, 2016, on markets under the Bush and Obama administrations
575. "
Inflation Expectations Stand Like A Stone Wall
," January 19, 2016, on implied real interest rates
576."
European Commercial Bank Stress Drives ECB Policy
," January 26, 2016, on monetary responses to bank performance
577. "
Treasuries Will Not Get A Yen Carry Trade
," February 2, 2016, on the relationship between the yen and Treasuries
578. "
The Yield Curve's Impact On Asset Classes
," February 9, 2016, on interest rate expectations and asset class returns
579. "
Gold Is More Risk-Off Than Negative-Rate Driven
," February 16, 2016, on drivers of gold priced in euros
580. "
Brexit Of Champions
," February 23, 2016, on the relative performance of British equities
581. "
Commodity-Linked Equities Once Again A Robo-Trade
," March 1, 2016," on commodity-linked equities' performance
582. "
TIPS Not Ready To Outperform
," March 8, 2016, on prospective relative TIPS performance
583. "
The World Thanks The European Central Bank
," March 15, 2016, on the relative performance impact of ECB actions
584. "
North Africa/Middle East After Crude Oil's Low
," March 22, 2016, on the region's underperformance
585. "
Hierarchy Of Returns As First Quarter Comes To A Close
," March 29, 2016, on asset class returns
586. "
Eurozone High-Yield Benefited From ECB Shift
," April 5, 2016, on ECB purchases of corporate bonds
587. "
Yen's Recent Jump Within Historic Norms,
" April 12, 2016, on distributions of currency returns
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