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This is a compendium of Howard L. Simons' Active Trader Magazine articles from January 2008 through the magazine's closure in January 2015.
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Bonds And The First Rule Of Trading,
" January 2008, on the long-term trends in bond markets;
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The Importance Of Global Petroleum Inventories,
" February 2008, on tight global crude oil supplies;
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Had Enough Of The Dollar And Stuff?
" March 2008, on the links between the dollar and commodities;
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Gold's Sound And Fury May Signify Nothing,
" April 2008, on the financial returns of holding gold;
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TIPS, Treasuries And Insurance,
" May 2008, on whether TIPS actually measure expected inflation;
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Energy Stock Movers And Shakers,
" June 2008, on the disaggregated impact of commodities on energy stocks;
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Crush Spreads In A Biofuels Age,
" July 2008, on the impact of biofuels on the soybean market;
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Putting The Put-Write Right,
" August 2008, on the put-write and buy-write indices;
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Nothing Could Be Finer Than To Be A Data Miner,
" September 2008, on the impact of large moves on future returns;
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Flight From Flight-To-Quality,
" October 2008, on the diminished impetus to flee from stocks to bonds;
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Deconstructing The Commodity Surge,
" November 2008, on movement of individual commodity markets as a function of individual financial markets;
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REITs As Macro Indicators,
" December 2008, on signals derived from the relative performance of REITs;
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Volatility And Swap Spreads,
" January 2009, on stress in the credit markets;
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Gasoline, Productivity And Inflation,
" February 2009, on the ability of the economy to absorb higher fuel costs;
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Stocks Today, Bonds Tomorrow,
" March 2009, on the role of realized borrowing costs;
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The Industrial Pulse Of Freight Rates,
" April 2009, on the importance of freight rates as an economic indicator;
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The VIX And Market Capitulations,
" May 2009, on volatility-based indications of market bottoms;
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Hedging Sector Dividend Risk,
" June 2009, on using single stock futures to hedge sector ETF dividends;
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Will Silver Streak Again?,
" July 2009, on the long-term prospects for silver;
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Trading Inflation Impossible In A Deflationary World,
" August 2009, on the term structure of inflation swaps and TIPS breakevens;
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Crude Oil Poor Financial Market Lubricant,
" September 2009, on the positive correlation between crude oil and U.S. equities
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The Brent-WTI Spread,
" October 2009, on the Atlantic Basin crude oil market;
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Gas And Oil, Together At Last,
" November 2009, on the European gasoil market;
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Municipal Bonds Ride Federal Stimulus,
" December 2009, on the rise and fall of municipal bond credit spreads;
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Crisis Trading,
" January 2010, on correlation between asset classes during a financial crisis;
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You Do Not Get Rewarded For Risk,
" February 2010, on inverted risk-reward relationships;
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Refiners Stocks Tell Energy Stories,
" March 2010, on the economics of the refining sector;
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Inflation's Macro Myths,
" April 2010, on macroeconomic variables and inflation;
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Financial Markets And Inflation,
" May 2010, on financial markets and their relationship to inflation;
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China Starts Setting The Pace,
" June 2010, on the role of large overnight moves in the Chinese markets;
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Natural Gas And Contango Limits,
" July 2010, on the differences between natural gas strip and spot prices;
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Which Stocks And What Dollar?
" August 2010, on size-dependent correlations of U.S. stocks against various currencies;
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How Japan Lost More Than A Decade
" September 2010, on the negative sovereign credit consequences of Japanese policies;
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The Risks Of Risk-Free Bonds
" October 2010, on the impact of sovereign credit risks;
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Investing Under A Constant Expectation
" November 2010, on the effects of unexpectedly low short-term interest rates;
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Not All Carry Trades Are Alike
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December 2010, on the effects of two year/ten-year and OIS/ten-year carries on financial stocks;
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The Importance Of Being Carried
" January 2011, on emerging markets' dependence on global carry trades;
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The Unbearable Triteness Of Easing
" February 2011, on financial stocks' diminished response to monetary ease;
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Base Metals And Chinese Monetary Policy
" March 2011, on the role of Chinese short-term interest rates in establishing base metals trends;
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Dial 'D' For Default
" April 2011, on the relationship between sovereign CDS costs and Treasury note volatility;
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Does Anything Affect TIPS Breakevens?
" May 2011, on factors affecting TIPS breakevens;
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Here's A Surprise From Equity Supplies
" June 2011, on equity issuance and shrinkage's role in stock market returns;
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The Seasonal Effects Of The Japanese Fiscal Year
" July 2011, on seasonal financial flows from Japan to the U.S.;
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Mortgages And Treasuries On Large-Move Days
" August 2011, on mortgage securities reactions to interest rate shocks;
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Other VIX Need Other Tricks
" September 2011, on the behavior of selected non-equity volatility indices;
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Leading Indicators' Bleeding Edge
" October 2011, on divergences between the weekly and monthly leading indicator series;
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Employment Report Reactions
" November 2011, on various markets' reactions to payroll estimate misses
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Risk, Return And The Cost of Capital
" December 2011, on various markets' reactions to changed capital cost and risk factors;
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Productivity And Employment
" January 2012, on the long-term effects of rising productivity on employment;
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Cost Of Capital Investment And Employment
" February 2012, on the impact of net capital costs on investment and employment;
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Diversification Comes To Those Who Wait
" March 2012, on cross-sectional volatility;
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Gold Stocks And The Cost Of Hedging
" April 2012, on differential returns between miners who do and do not hedge;
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Know Your Muni Bond Customer
" May 2012, on counterintuitive psychographics of municipal bond investors;
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What A Drag It's Not Having Cash
" June 2012, on dividend payouts, cash levels and return;
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More Money Does Not Mean Less Grain
" July 2012, on the non-linkage between monetary excess and grain price spikes;
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Changing Differences Between Stocks And Commodities
" August 2012, on why the two markets are not amenable to the same technical analyses;
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Chickens Coming Home To Roost
" September 2012, on corn/chicken cycle;
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Speculative Flows And Index Level Prices
" October 2012, on whether CFTC positions drive changes in commodity indices;
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Commodity Prices And Speculative Positions
" November 2012, on whether CFTC positions drive changes in selected commodity markets;
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TIPS Do Time-Travel With Commodities
" December 2012, on the instant capitalization into breakevens of short-term futures price movements;
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Money, Stocks And Illusions
" January 2013, on the relationship between stock returns and inflation expectations;
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How ETF Volatility Has Affected Gold Futures
" February 2013, on how futures' dollar volatility has increased with ETF usage;
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TIPS And Pseudo-Real Rates
" March 2013, on factors affecting the real interest rates implied by TIPS
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Other Views Of Corporate Bond Risk
" April 2013, on normalized OAS levels and duration risk;
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Relative Performance And Short-Term Rates
" May 2013, on how short-term rates affect relative stock/corporate bond performance;
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Convexity And Bond Market Perplexity
" June 2013, on limits to bullish flattening trades;
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Inflation And Food Prices
" July 2013, on the transmission of food commodity prices into consumer price measures;
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Housing Cost Indices Invite Skepticism
" August 2013, on anomalies in OER and RPR;
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U.S. - German Bond Spread
" September 2013, on factors affecting the spread between Treasuries and Bunds
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Two Markets, No Spread
" October 2013, on the relationship between Chinese and U.S. equities;
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Dividends, Risk And Return
" November 2013, on how dividend payouts and cash retention affect returns;
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Cocoa, Sugar And Trying To Make Candy Dandy
" December 2013, on the soft commodities and confectioners' equities;
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Carry Trades And Global Returns
" January 2014, on the sensitivity of equity markets to dollar and yen carry trades;
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Getting A Bounce From Rubber
" February 2014, on price trends in rubber markets;
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Money And Those Pesky Food And Energy Prices
" March 2014, on the link between monetary expectations and food and energy index returns;
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What Hath The Printing Press Wrought?
" April 2014, on the effects of the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet;
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Indexation's Weighty Issues
" May 2014, on equal-weighted indices;
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Performance And Capitalization: Yes, It Matters
" June 2014, on different attributes of indices divided by capitalization measures;
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Fundamentals, The First And Final Frontier
" July 2014, on the relative performance of fundamental-weighted indices;
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Chinese Stocks And U.S. Bonds
" August 2014, on the relationship between the two markets;
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Efficient Markets Ignore Backward-Looking Risk
" September 2014, on the relationship between returns and risk measures;
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Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon
" October 2014, on linkages between inflation monetary policies;
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Two Commodities, Two Curves, One Name
" November 2014, on the backwardated nature of ULSD futures;
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ETF And Futures Trading Activity's Influence On Precious Metals
" December 2014, on whether ownership patterns are linked to price; and
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Absolute Dollar Risk Matters For The VIX
" January 2015, on the link between absolute price risk and implied volatility
Howard L. Simons was interviewed on the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis for the
February 2010
issue.
Home
Archived Publications
Macro Environment Roundup
Futures / Modern Trader
Active Trader
RealMoney
Currency Trader
SFO
Minyanville
TheStreetPros
Exchanges & Presentations
Simons Research