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Active Trader

This is a compendium of Howard L. Simons' Active Trader Magazine articles from January 2008 through the magazine's closure in January 2015.
  1. "Bonds And The First Rule Of Trading," January 2008, on the long-term trends in bond markets;
  2. "The Importance Of Global Petroleum Inventories," February 2008, on tight global crude oil supplies;
  3. "Had Enough Of The Dollar And Stuff?" March 2008, on the links between the dollar and commodities;
  4. "Gold's Sound And Fury May Signify Nothing," April 2008, on the financial returns of holding gold;
  5. "TIPS, Treasuries And Insurance," May 2008, on whether TIPS actually measure expected inflation;
  6. "Energy Stock Movers And Shakers," June 2008, on the disaggregated impact of commodities on energy stocks;
  7. "Crush Spreads In A Biofuels Age," July 2008, on the impact of biofuels on the soybean market;
  8. "Putting The Put-Write Right," August 2008, on the put-write and buy-write indices;
  9. "Nothing Could Be Finer Than To Be A Data Miner," September 2008, on the impact of large moves on future returns;
  10. "Flight From Flight-To-Quality," October 2008, on the diminished impetus to flee from stocks to bonds;
  11. "Deconstructing The Commodity Surge," November 2008, on movement of individual commodity markets as a function of individual financial markets;
  12. "REITs As Macro Indicators," December 2008, on signals derived from the relative performance of REITs;
  13. "Volatility And Swap Spreads," January 2009, on stress in the credit markets;
  14. "Gasoline, Productivity And Inflation," February 2009, on the ability of the economy to absorb higher fuel costs;
  15. "Stocks Today, Bonds Tomorrow," March 2009, on the role of realized borrowing costs;
  16. "The Industrial Pulse Of Freight Rates," April 2009, on the importance of freight rates as an economic indicator;
  17. "The VIX And Market Capitulations," May 2009, on volatility-based indications of market bottoms;
  18. "Hedging Sector Dividend Risk," June 2009, on using single stock futures to hedge sector ETF dividends;
  19. "Will Silver Streak Again?," July 2009, on the long-term prospects for silver;
  20. "Trading Inflation Impossible In A Deflationary World," August 2009, on the term structure of inflation swaps and TIPS breakevens;
  21. "Crude Oil Poor Financial Market Lubricant," September 2009, on the positive correlation between crude oil and U.S. equities
  22. "The Brent-WTI Spread," October 2009, on the Atlantic Basin crude oil market;
  23. "Gas And Oil, Together At Last," November 2009, on the European gasoil market;
  24. "Municipal Bonds Ride Federal Stimulus," December 2009, on the rise and fall of municipal bond credit spreads;
  25. "Crisis Trading," January 2010, on correlation between asset classes during a financial crisis;
  26. "You Do Not Get Rewarded For Risk," February 2010, on inverted risk-reward relationships;
  27. "Refiners Stocks Tell Energy Stories," March 2010, on the economics of the refining sector;
  28. "Inflation's Macro Myths," April 2010, on macroeconomic variables and inflation;
  29. "Financial Markets And Inflation," May 2010, on financial markets and their relationship to inflation;
  30. "China Starts Setting The Pace," June 2010, on the role of large overnight moves in the Chinese markets;
  31. "Natural Gas And Contango Limits," July 2010, on the differences between natural gas strip and spot prices;
  32. "Which Stocks And What Dollar?" August 2010, on size-dependent correlations of U.S. stocks against various currencies;
  33. "How Japan Lost More Than A Decade" September 2010, on the negative sovereign credit consequences of Japanese policies;
  34. "The Risks Of Risk-Free Bonds" October 2010, on the impact of sovereign credit risks;
  35. "Investing Under A Constant Expectation" November 2010, on the effects of unexpectedly low short-term interest rates;
  36. "Not All Carry Trades Are Alike" December 2010, on the effects of two year/ten-year and OIS/ten-year carries on financial stocks;
  37. "The Importance Of Being Carried" January 2011, on emerging markets' dependence on global carry trades;
  38. "The Unbearable Triteness Of Easing" February 2011, on financial stocks' diminished response to monetary ease;
  39. "Base Metals And Chinese Monetary Policy" March 2011, on the role of Chinese short-term interest rates in establishing base metals trends;
  40. "Dial 'D' For Default" April 2011, on the relationship between sovereign CDS costs and Treasury note volatility;
  41. "Does Anything Affect TIPS Breakevens?" May 2011, on factors affecting TIPS breakevens;
  42. "Here's A Surprise From Equity Supplies" June 2011, on equity issuance and shrinkage's role in stock market returns;
  43. "The Seasonal Effects Of The Japanese Fiscal Year" July 2011, on seasonal financial flows from Japan to the U.S.;
  44. "Mortgages And Treasuries On Large-Move Days" August 2011, on mortgage securities reactions to interest rate shocks;
  45. "Other VIX Need Other Tricks" September 2011, on the behavior of selected non-equity volatility indices;
  46. "Leading Indicators' Bleeding Edge" October 2011, on divergences between the weekly and monthly leading indicator series;
  47. "Employment Report Reactions" November 2011, on various markets' reactions to payroll estimate misses
  48. "Risk, Return And The Cost of Capital" December 2011, on various markets' reactions to changed capital cost and risk factors;
  49. "Productivity And Employment" January 2012, on the long-term effects of rising productivity on employment;
  50. "Cost Of Capital Investment And Employment" February 2012, on the impact of net capital costs on investment and employment;
  51. "Diversification Comes To Those Who Wait" March 2012, on cross-sectional volatility;
  52. "Gold Stocks And The Cost Of Hedging" April 2012, on differential returns between miners who do and do not hedge;
  53. "Know Your Muni Bond Customer" May 2012, on counterintuitive psychographics of municipal bond investors;
  54. "What A Drag It's Not Having Cash" June 2012, on dividend payouts, cash levels and return;
  55. "More Money Does Not Mean Less Grain" July 2012, on the non-linkage between monetary excess and grain price spikes;
  56. "Changing Differences Between Stocks And Commodities " August 2012, on why the two markets are not amenable to the same technical analyses;
  57. "Chickens Coming Home To Roost" September 2012, on corn/chicken cycle;
  58. "Speculative Flows And Index Level Prices" October 2012, on whether CFTC positions drive changes in commodity indices;
  59. "Commodity Prices And Speculative Positions" November 2012, on whether CFTC positions drive changes in selected commodity markets;
  60. "TIPS Do Time-Travel With Commodities" December 2012, on the instant capitalization into breakevens of short-term futures price movements;
  61. "Money, Stocks And Illusions" January 2013, on the relationship between stock returns and inflation expectations;
  62. "How ETF Volatility Has Affected Gold Futures" February 2013, on how futures' dollar volatility has increased with ETF usage;
  63. "TIPS And Pseudo-Real Rates" March 2013, on factors affecting the real interest rates implied by TIPS
  64. "Other Views Of Corporate Bond Risk" April 2013, on normalized OAS levels and duration risk;
  65. "Relative Performance And Short-Term Rates" May 2013, on how short-term rates affect relative stock/corporate bond performance;
  66. "Convexity And Bond Market Perplexity" June 2013, on limits to bullish flattening trades;
  67. "Inflation And Food Prices" July 2013, on the transmission of food commodity prices into consumer price measures;
  68. "Housing Cost Indices Invite Skepticism" August 2013, on anomalies in OER and RPR;
  69. "U.S. - German Bond Spread" September 2013, on factors affecting the spread between Treasuries and Bunds
  70. "Two Markets, No Spread" October 2013, on the relationship between Chinese and U.S. equities;
  71. "Dividends, Risk And Return" November 2013, on how dividend payouts and cash retention affect returns;
  72. "Cocoa, Sugar And Trying To Make Candy Dandy" December 2013, on the soft commodities and confectioners' equities;
  73. "Carry Trades And Global Returns" January 2014, on the sensitivity of equity markets to dollar and yen carry trades;
  74. "Getting A Bounce From Rubber" February 2014, on price trends in rubber markets;
  75. "Money And Those Pesky Food And Energy Prices" March 2014, on the link between monetary expectations and food and energy index returns;
  76. "What Hath The Printing Press Wrought?" April 2014, on the effects of the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet;
  77. "Indexation's Weighty Issues" May 2014, on equal-weighted indices;
  78. "Performance And Capitalization: Yes, It Matters" June 2014, on different attributes of indices divided by capitalization measures;
  79. "Fundamentals, The First And Final Frontier" July 2014, on the relative performance of fundamental-weighted indices;
  80. "Chinese Stocks And U.S. Bonds" August 2014, on the relationship between the two markets;
  81. "Efficient Markets Ignore Backward-Looking Risk" September 2014, on the relationship between returns and risk measures;
  82. "Everywhere A Monetary Phenomenon" October 2014, on linkages between inflation monetary policies;
  83. "Two Commodities, Two Curves, One Name" November 2014, on the backwardated nature of ULSD futures;
  84. "ETF And Futures Trading Activity's Influence On Precious Metals" December 2014, on whether ownership patterns are linked to price; and
  85. "Absolute Dollar Risk Matters For The VIX" January 2015, on the link between absolute price risk and implied volatility
Howard L. Simons was interviewed on the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis for the February 2010 issue.
  • Home
  • Archived Publications
    • Macro Environment Roundup
    • Futures / Modern Trader
    • Active Trader
    • RealMoney
    • Currency Trader
    • SFO
    • Minyanville
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  • Exchanges & Presentations
  • Simons Research